After several rounds of talks, a peace agreement between the Taliban and the USA is to be signed on Saturday. But it can only be the first step towards a lasting peace solution.

Last August, the US, and Taliban representatives were about to conclude an agreement in Doha. In September, however, Donald Trump ended negotiations in response to a Taliban attack on US soldiers. However, this interruption lasted only a few weeks, and then both sides resumed their talks, so that, almost five months later, they are now ready to sign the historic agreement. The decisive prerequisite for this was compliance with a week of “reduced violence”, which the Taliban and the USA had agreed on.

“The Americans alone have no leverage to get the Taliban to the deal they want,” Pakistani security expert Ali K. Chishti told DW. Trump has used his good relationship with Prime Minister Imran Khan: “The Pakistani military leadership has exerted its influence and ensured that the Pakistani Taliban caused their comrades-in-law in Afghanistan to stop attacking US targets.”

According to observers, the main subject of an agreement will be the reduction of American troop presence. The Taliban’s main demand since its fall in 2001 has been to withdraw all foreign troops from Afghanistan. Trump, on the other hand, wants to be able to tell his voters in the fall that he is bringing American soldiers home from the unpopular mission in the Hindu Kush.

“Negotiated over the head of the population”

As far as is known to date, the current 12,000 soldiers in Afghanistan are to be reduced to 8,600 in Afghanistan. As a result, the Afghan army will face increased pressure from the Taliban. Ashraf Ghani’s government may also be forced to make more concessions to the Taliban in Afghan negotiations, observers fear. “Unfortunately, the Kabul government does not play a major role in this agreement for either the United States or regional powers,” said Ali K. Chishti.

However, observers acknowledge that there is no other realistic way to open the way to a lasting political solution in Afghanistan. The Taliban are still militarily strong, and the United States is unwilling to engage in endless military engagement in the country.

What else the agreement could contain, apart from the reduction in troops, makes some Afghans, such as human rights activist Humaira Saqib from Kabul, suspicious: “We are concerned about the ambiguity of the agreement and because the Afghan people have practically nothing to do with the details of the agreements between the two The US and the Taliban are experiencing, for example, talking about the release of prisoners, but we don’t know the conditions under which these people should be released, “Saqib told DW. “”Washington claims that after the deal there will be talks between the Kabul government and the Taliban, but they continue to refuse direct negotiations with the government. What will become of the deal,

Unclear role of the Kabul government 

Even shortly before the planned signing of the contract, it is unclear what role the government will play in Kabul in Doha. A government delegation is at least provided as a witness. Sediq Sediqqi, the spokesman for President Ashraf Ghani, told DW: “The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has set up a committee to make initial contact with the Taliban. We have used this measure to respond to repeated Taliban demands from us to our international allies. ”

There is no question of Taliban demands on Kabul, their spokesman in Doha, Sohail Shaheen, told DW: “We have not invited the Afghan government delegation to Doha. If the United States has invited them, it will not concern us.” Shaheen explains how to proceed after the agreement is signed: “After the contract is signed, there is a phase of trust-building. This phase involves 5000 prisoners from our ranks in Afghan prisons and 1,000 prisoners from the ranks of the Afghan government. Only after these steps can an Afghan dialogue begin. “

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Qamar Munawer
Editor at The Eastern Herald. Studied Bachelor in Architect in Chandigarh, India. Collecting and writing newsworthy stories from around the world. I love to praise nature.