The economists of leading German financial organizations predict a sharp drop in economic output as a result of the Corona crisis. As a result, the gross domestic product in Germany is expected to fall by around five percent this year – similar to the situation after the financial crisis in 2009. The economists in their calculation models assume that most of the work will be possible again around the beginning of May.
“”In order to slow the spread of thevirus-2019/events-as-they-happen”> Covid-19 virus, the German economy has to take a necessary respite, which is expected to take a month or two,” said Katharina Utermohl from the Allianz Group in a survey by the German Press Agency. She expects a “rapid rise in unemployment” in March.
Jens-Oliver Niklasch of the Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg (LBBW) expressed the assessment that, once the pandemic has subsided, the industry will probably not start up at the same pace as it is now shutting down. It is strongly networked internationally and depends on functioning supply chains.
Marc Schattenberg from Deutsche Bank expects unemployment to increase by an average of around 0.5 points per year to a rate of 5.6 percent, provided that the crisis will be largely overcome in May. Then economic output in 2020 is likely to decrease by 4.5 to 5 percent.