Amid continuing protests, following the death of George Floyd, Trump as “losers determined” to stay in desperation after the 270 electoral votes for the second term of his presidency. A series of polls in the hesitant (and non-popular) states announced on Wednesday make this bitter reality more apparent.
- Fox News polls in Arizona show Biden 46-42 ahead of Trump.
- Fox News polls in Ohio show Biden 45 to 43 ahead of Trump.
- A Fox News poll in Wisconsin shows that Biden is 49 to 40 ahead of Trump.
- A poll at the Queens Peak University in Texas found that Trump was 44 to 43 ahead of Biden.
How bad are these numbers for Trump? Honestly, they are “very bad.” “The last Democrat to succeed as president of Arizona in 1996 was Bill Clinton,” Chris Cillizza wrote in a June 5 report in Cyanide. In Texas, no Republican president since 1976, Jimmy Carter, has won the state’s presidential election. Since the turn of the century, Ohio has been one of the most hesitant states in the presidential race, but in 2016 it turned strongly to Trump, who scored eight points. Wisconsin is also considered the most likely state that Trump turned to in 2016 to support him. (A poll in Pennsylvania and Michigan – two of the oldest states in the Democratic state that Trump won in 2016 – shows that he is still behind Biden.)
According to David Wright’s rankings in China, Trump’s campaign has spent more than $ 1 million a year on advertising in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Arizona since the beginning of the year, which means that even by sending Trump’s preferred messages on television, voters In these states, at least so far, they have not been encouraged. Now let’s see what those numbers mean for Trump to get 270 votes in November. Start here: Trump won about 306 electoral votes in his 2016 election victory. Now consider these 2020 scenarios:
- If Trump loses Texas (and wins in all the other places he won in 2016), he will lose to Biden: 270 electoral votes against 268 electoral votes.
If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (and wins in all the other places he won in 2016), he will lose to Biden by 278 votes to 260.
If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and wins in all the other places he won in 2016), he will lose to Biden by 279 votes to 259.
If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and wins in all the other places he won in 2016), he will lose to Biden by 276 votes to 262.
If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin (and wins in all the other places he won in 2016), he will lose to Biden by 271 votes to 267.
However, we are 152 days away from the November 3 election (according to my calculations, of course), and that number may change, but so far there has been no sign of change. “It’s important to note that Biden has a long way to go, but Trump’s path is moving forward,” he said. However, opinion polls released on Wednesday do not address the potential of Trump’s troubles in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. The same places where she got her makeup in 2016.
According to the reporter, the best / most likely way for Trump’s second term is to lose one or two states, Michigan or Pennsylvania, and retain all the other states he won in 2016. If he loses these two states, he will get 270 electoral votes against 268 votes, and his victory over Biden will be proven. If he loses only Pennsylvania, he will get 286 electoral votes. The loss of Michigan means that Trump has 290 electoral votes and the second round is certain for him. Some analysts believe that the country has become as polarized as it was two months ago, and the course of competition has not changed.