Before the US presidential elections 2020, five days left, Sociologists across Europe asked which candidates Europeans support in the race between incumbent President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Few sociologists have asked a solid and clear question about the hypothetical intention of the vote. Ipsos surveyed voters around the world asking them the following question: “This November, elections will be held in the United States to elect a president for the next four years. If you had to vote in this election, would you vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Joe Biden? ”
In Germany, 62% said they would vote for Biden, and only 10% said the same about Trump. 11% of Germans preferred not to answer this question, and another 18% did not know how to answer. If undecided voters were excluded from the sample, 86% of those polled would vote for Biden and only 14% would vote for his Republican opponent Donald Trump.
The survey showed that in France voters are rather indecisive about candidates compared to other Western European countries. 34% would not know who to vote for if they had a choice between Biden and Trump. 50% supported the Democratic candidate Joe Biden, only 10% for Trump. 6% preferred not to answer the questionnaire. If a large pool of undecided voters in France were excluded, 83% would vote for Joe Biden and only 17% would vote for Donald Trump.
Ipsos survey in Italy found that 49% of voters would vote for Joe Biden, 15% would vote for Donald Trump. If voters who did not express their intention to vote (36%) were excluded, Joe Biden would have led the Italians by 77 to 33.
Spain would vote for Biden
If voters in Spain could elect the next US president, 54% would vote for Biden. 27% of voters said they did not know whom to vote for, which is two and a half times more than those who would vote for Trump (11%). 9% of respondents preferred not to inform Ipsos about the preference of the candidate. Among the determined Spaniards, Biden is ahead of Trump by 83 to 17.
Poland would vote for both 50-50
Poland – one of the most socially conservative countries in Europe. This makes the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden tougher than anywhere else on the continent: both candidates will receive 27% of the vote, as found out Ipsos… Logically, if voters who do not know which to choose from the two (40%) and those who do not want to disclose their intention to vote (5%) should be excluded, each candidate will receive 50% of the vote.
73% of Swedish would vote for Biden
In Sweden, 73% of respondents Ipsos replied that they would vote for Joe Biden. Only 10% answered that they would support Donald Trump in the elections. 14% answered that they did not know the answer to this question, and 3% preferred not to answer. This means an 88% vote share for Biden and 12% for Trump if open and decisive voters are to be taken into account.
Hungary sympathizes with Joe Biden
Hungary is also a more socially conservative population than most European countries. However, the majority still sympathize with Joe Biden. In the Ipsos survey, it is visible that 33% of a representative sample said they would vote for Biden, 23% said the same about Donald Trump. 37% did not know what to answer, and 6% of the respondents refused to inform about their intention to vote. Thus, 59% of the determined and open voters would vouch for Biden, 41% would tick the Trump ballot box in a hypothetical Hungarian voting booth in the US presidential election.
Biden is the choice of 63% of Belgium
The Ipsos global poll also surveyed a representative sample of voters in Belgium… 63% said they would vote for Joe Biden, 10% would vote for Donald Trump, 21% didn’t know what to say, and 6% said they weren’t sure what to answer. If only those voters who made the decision were taken into account, Trump would receive 14%, clearly lagging behind Biden with 86%. By increasing scale to the first subnational administrative level, Kieskompas conducted a survey of voters in Flanders… In the northern region of Belgium, 68% would support Biden, compared to 14% who would support Trump, 11.9% other candidates and 5.9% are unsure of their vote. Again, eliminating the undecided will give very similar results to the Netherlands, where Biden will easily win 72% versus Trump’s 15%. Others, such as libertarian Joe Jorgensen, Green Howie Hawkins, and independent Kanye West, would receive 13%.
Netherland is more inclined (85%) towards voting for Biden
The Netherlands Research Institute Kieskompas found that 65.6% of voters would support Joe Biden, while only 16.5% would vote for Trump. 12% would vote for another candidate, and 6% are unsure of their opinion. Barring the undecided, the race would lead to a convincing victory for Democratic candidate Biden, who received 70% versus Trump’s 18%, while the other candidates would receive roughly 13% of the vote. Poll Ipsos in the Netherlands showed similar results: Joe Biden got 61%, while only 11% would vote for Donald Trump. 22% of Ipsos surveyed did not know what to answer, 6% did not want to share their intention to vote. If this sample only counted Trump and Biden voters, the former vice president Biden would receive 85% and the incumbent president 15%.
85% of Finish would like to vote for Biden
In Finland sociologists from Kantar TNS discovered that 75% of respondents would like Joe Biden to win the election, while only 10% would vote for Trump, 3% for others and 12% found it difficult to answer. The elimination of the undecided will lead to a Biden victory with 85% versus 11%, while 3% of voters will choose another candidate.
83% of Greeks think Joe Biden is better
Greek ProRata agency survey asked Greek voters “if there was a US presidential election tomorrow and you had the right to vote and you had to choose one of the next two candidates, who would you choose?” The poll showed that 71% would vote for Joe Biden in the US presidential election, and only 15% would vote for Trump. Those who chose “don’t know” were 14%, and their exclusion would give former Vice President Biden an 83-17 victory.
Ireland is ready for Joe Biden as a US President
Ireland poll showed that 80% of voters would vote for Joe Biden; only 13% would vote for Donald Trump. 7% of those chosen did not know the answer to the question: “If you were to vote in the upcoming presidential elections in the United States, which of the following candidates would you vote for?” If the undecided were excluded from the sample, Joe Biden’s share would rise to 86%, and Donald Trump’s backwardness would only rise from 14%.
|A country||Biden (%)||Trump (%)||Others (%)||A source|
|Finland||85||eleven||3||Kantar / TNS|
|Russia (not in the EU)||33||68||–||Ipsos|
|Turkey (not in the EU)||53||47||–||Ipsos|
Trump is not an eligible presidential candidate for the United States
Ahead of the final round of the Trump-Biden debate, a Gallup poll showed 56% of Americans believe Trump does not deserve a second term. Historically, in the United States, all candidates with an approval rating of 50% and above won re-election, while presidents with an approval rating well below 50% lost.
Trump, who is trying to stay in the White House for another cadence, continues to lag behind Biden in polls. Analysts of The Economist magazine believe that Biden’s chances of winning are much higher than those of the current head of state.
It’s worth noting that Biden has better ratings ahead of the election than any US presidential contender since 1936.