The 2020 United States presidential election will have a direct relationship to Iran’s economic situation in the future. Iranians have disappointed to solve problems by their government. As a result, the election may be more important than Iran’s next presidential election for disenchanted Iranians because Trump’s defeat will revive probably their economic and nuclear agreement.
President Trump withdrew the U.S from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and he imposed crippling economic sanctions against Iran. The sanctions have reduced Iran’s income from oil export significantly. Iran’s budget was based on sales of 1 million barrels per day at an average of $50 per barrel which started in March 2020. Iran reportedly exported as little as 140,000 BPD. With sanctions having a direct impact on the Iranian economy, inflation is at an all-time high since the revolution of 1979, and Iran’s currency has lost %60 of its value.
Disenchanted Iranians have disappointed by their government’s response to the financial crisis and the U.S presidential election plays a crucial role in their life. They consider Joe Biden as a game-changer because democrats will probably return to JCPOA in the future. The Iran government has turned its eyes to the U.S election too. The views of 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden differ from President Trump about various issues such as Iran because Biden is a critic of Trump’s foreign policy. He recently opposed Trump’s policies about Iran nuclear deal and killing General Qasem Soleimani. He said “President Trump just tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox,” after a U.S. strike killed Iranian military commander Jen. Soleimani. Also, Biden criticized Trump’s withdrawal from JCPOA and said “If Iran moves back into compliance with its nuclear obligations, I would re-enter the JCPOA as a starting point to work alongside our allies in Europe and other world powers to extend the deal’s nuclear constraints.”
As well as, senator Kamala Harris told in a virtual fundraiser,” The Obama administration’s nuclear deal sought to hinder Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon. But the deal was heavily criticized, with skeptics saying it was unenforceable, and Trump withdrew from it.” Biden’s Choice for Vice President continued Iran “is revving up its nuclear activity and becoming more provocative.”
Biden’s foreign policy team which includes, Michele Flourney, Tony Blinken, Pete Buttigieg, Jake Sullivan, and Daniel Beniaim, are opposed to the current foreign policies of the U.S. secretary of state against Iran, and their stance provides a clear image of Biden’s possible policies in matters regarding Iran.
Michèle Flournoy was undersecretary of defense during the Obama administration. “The repercussion of the withdrawal from the JCPOA is it took us from a situation where we had put 10 to 15 years on the clock between now and when Iran would be in a position to produce enough fissile material to get a bomb. Now, as we see in the latest International Atomic Energy Agency reports, they are starting to take steps to ramp up their enrichment. They’ve installed new, better centrifuges. They are inching toward a sort of breakout capability again”. She said in an interview on CBS NEWS.
Also, Tony Blinken knows Getting out of the Iran nuclear agreement as a mistake. He said” if we come back into compliance, we would use that as a platform with our partners and allies who would be on the same side with us again to negotiate a longer and stronger deal,” continued Blinken In a discussion during the American Jewish Committee (AJC) Virtual Global Forum. “President Trump’s actions have had the unfortunate result, among others, of isolating the United States, not Iran. We need to flip that.”
Sullivan was also a senior advisor to the U.S. government during the Iran nuclear negotiations. In 2013, the media reported that officials in the Obama administration including Sullivan had been in secret contact with Iranian officials throughout 2013 about the Iranian nuclear program in Oman. He was the National Security Advisor to Joe Biden in the Obama administration. He said at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security.” The United States should return to a nuclear deal with Iran in order to work out a “modus vivendi”. “I don’t think there’s anything inconsistent with finding a path forward on nuclear diplomacy early next year” which “then sets the stage for negotiation over a follow-on agreement. We provide sanctions relief to Iran in 2021 in exchange for them returning to a number of their commitments,” Sullivan added.
Daniel Benaim, he served as a Middle East policy adviser and foreign policy speechwriter to vice president Joe Biden, the Department of State, and the U.S. Senate in Obama Administration. “Trump basically created this hornets’ nest of tension by walking out of the Iran deal. He imposed sanctions again and treating them by the enemy. Iran is back to enrichment uranium no longer abiding by the restrictions of the Iran deal. Launching rockets and killing Americans. Iran looks more powerful things are more dangerous and we still have the threat of a nuclear crisis down the road with Iran because he took that solved problem for now. That was solved for a decade or more and unsolved it,” He said in an interview on Tennessee holler.
But common points of their opinions summarized in some statements. They are all obligated to Israel’s security. Kamala Harris told which Joe Biden’s administration would offer unwavering support for Israel. All Biden’s advisors belief which Iran’s nuclear deal was working and getting out of it was a big mistake. They want to return to deal and work with European allies. All of them think that Trump has isolated the U.S in the policy of the world. They worry about tensions in the region, Iran’s activities in the Middle East, Iran’s revving nuclear activity, and its enrichment too.
They will not lift or suspend sanctions against Iran quickly. Biden’s advisors want to keep sanctions in 2021 as the bargaining chip. Iran’s returning to a number of its commitments is the prerequisite of any sanctions suspending. They finally want to negotiate for a longer deal. So, Iran should not expect to solve its problems quickly, and the process would be time-consuming. However, Biden’s victory can impress Iran’s economic terms psychologically in a short time.
Unlike this, if President Trump wins the election, re-negotiation will not reach achievement. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been the strong opposition to negotiation with the Trump administration. “I do not consider Trump, as a person, deserving to exchange messages with. We will not negotiate with the U.S,” he said during a meeting with Shinzō Abe, former prime minister of Japan on June 13, 2019. Also, any deal between Iran and Trump is similar to a miracle after killing Jen. Soleimani by Trump’s administration. So, Trump`s defeat can keep the hopes to revive Iran`s economy in 2021.
