While voices are still counted in America after the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Europe is already beginning to develop a new strategy for cooperation with the United States. While the more moderate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is ready to resume cooperation with allies, his victory in the American elections could lead to the fact that Europe will lose its determination and independence in the international arena, again counting on the support of the United States, writes Bloomberg…
It would seem that the presidency of Donald Trump cannot bring any benefit for foreign policy, however, it was during his tenure that the EU began to move towards independence, Trump’s policy became, in fact, a wake-up call for Europe to take control of its own future.
There is still uncertainty around the US presidential election, but the good news for the European Union is that “unofficially backed by Europe” Joe Biden is likely to become the new American president.
Donald Trump’s defeat would effectively mean that the EU could avoid four more years of aggressive trade wars, attacks on multilateral institutions and inconsistent political decisions from one of the world’s most powerful countries.
However, the big controversy is that Biden’s victory may not be very favorable for transatlantic relations, as the US Senate is likely to remain under the control of the Republican Party.
With this result, all of Biden’s political intentions run the risk of facing resistance from a “divided Congress”, leaving less room for a successful US foreign policy.
This means that Europeans cannot afford to sit back and wait for the consequences.
Whoever wins the US election, the EU will need to step up its own path and reduce its dependence on the US.
The last four years cannot be taken as a mistake, this demonstrates the rather powerful voter support that Trump received in the 2020 elections.
To a large extent, Trump’s policies have simply accelerated a trend that has prevailed in the United States for a long time: the United States is becoming increasingly indifferent to Europe and is starting to focus on containing China and pivoting towards Asia.
If the Biden administration actively focuses specifically on US domestic problems, any major reset in relations with Europe looks like a dubious option.
Even before the vote count is over, Europe is already feeling tense.
German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer called Trump’s appeal against the vote in court an “explosive” situation, a statement from Germany that contrasts somewhat with recent words from Kramp-Karrenbauer, who spoke of confidence in building German-American relations and insisted on Germany’s willingness to spend more funds for defense.
Of course, if Trump wins, all Germany’s expectations may not come true, but even if Joe Biden becomes the new American leader, relations between Europe and the United States will not be “cloudless.” Of course, a democrat can guarantee a “more affable tone”, but even Biden will not abandon his intentions to “fundamentally reform the West.”
This opens up a new space of opportunity for French President Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly pointed to the retreat of the United States and Great Britain from the post-war liberal order as evidence that the EU should become more independent and begin to care more about its own interests.
Trump’s policies have only strengthened Macron’s ambitions to create a more “geopolitically independent Europe” and forced the traditionally “indecisive” Germany to increase its activity in such areas as defense and technology. That is, “Trumpism” pushed Europe to change, the same can be done by “Baydenism”, but simply by “less harsh methods.”
However, Macron also needs to be careful about his ambitions for “European sovereignty.” The EU is not yet in a position to independently assume full responsibility for guaranteeing international security, given Britain’s “retreat”. In addition, some countries fear that a more independent EU, which is guided only by its own interests, may mean less protection against Russian provocations.
The best short-term opportunity for Europe is to leverage the EU’s 450 million consumer single market as a way to compete economically with both the US and China. Demonstrating its sovereignty, Europe began introducing new “regulatory instruments” such as foreign investment scrutiny, sanctions and restrictions in the tech sector. France this week imposed a tax on tech companies like Amazon Inc. and Google Alphabet Inc.
Thanks in large part to Trumpism, Europeans have begun to get serious about setting rules on their own soil, and the US may not like it too much, even if Joe Biden is the American leader. An alliance between Europe and the United States to strengthen “China Watch” would be effective and would also allow Europeans to develop more “own political initiatives” such as the defense industry, for example.
Europe must admit that there may no longer be a way to return to the old global order, therefore, regardless of future relations with the US, the EU should not be afraid to show its own initiatives in the international arena, the newspaper concludes.