A recent Egyptian study warned of the possibility of the “collapse” of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam, doubting the ability of Addis Ababa to complete the second filling of the dam.

Hisham Al-Askari, the study’s principal researcher, said in an interview with TEN (Egyptian/Private) channel, on Saturday evening, that the study had been worked on for more than 8 months, with the participation of local researchers, universities and international bodies.

The spokesman added that the study also witnessed the participation of Mohamed El-Aty, the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, who also heads his country’s technical delegation in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations, “to express scientific, not political, visions.”


He explained that “the study is still in the process of international arbitration, and the jury was sent confirming that the study is controversial and the scientific material in it is very high,” without details on this point.

He pointed out that the study relied on orbital rays and European satellite images that monitored the dam, during the period from 2016 to the second filling of the Renaissance Dam in July 2021.

And he added: “We do not say accusations and we will not be hostile to anyone. Rather, we show an imminent danger in a strong scientific manner and sound an alarm about a major threat facing the Sudanese, and we do not present research with a political overtone and we demand the international community to verify the validity of what we say.”

He stated that “the study points to a future threat of the possibility of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam collapsing (…) if it is completely filled.”

He questioned Ethiopia’s ability to completely fill the Renaissance Dam with 74 billion cubic meters, saying: “We will then be facing a destructive force that no human has ever seen,” adding that Addis Ababa is likely to stop when filling 30 or 40 billion of water “as a maximum, despite the difficulty of that.”

For his part, Amr Fawzy, another researcher participating in the study, said that it will be presented to international and local experts in a session at an international water conference that will be held in Egypt next October.

Fawzi indicated, during his participation in a program on the “Echo of the Country” channel (Egyptian / private), on Saturday evening, that this study was resorted to because there were no studies on the safety of the Renaissance Dam from the Ethiopian side.

It was not possible to obtain a comment from Addis Ababa regarding what the Egyptian study mentioned or to obtain a comment from an independent scientific source.

Egypt and Sudan exchange accusations with Ethiopia of being responsible for the failure of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations, sponsored by the African Union for five months, within a negotiating track that began about 10 years ago, due to differences over construction, operation and filling, amid anticipation for the return of negotiations at the invitation of the Security Council.

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