a NATO general of communist origin or a populist oligarch?

On January 27 and 28, the second round of presidential elections takes place in the Czech Republic. According to the voting results from two weeks ago, two candidates emerged who received roughly equal numbers of votes from Czech voters. Former NATO Military Committee Chairman General of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel, 61, won 35.4% of the vote, while former Prime Minister Andrej Babis won the support of 34.99% of voters nationwide. citizens who went to the polls.
Before the second round, retired candidates Danushe Nerudova, Pavel Fischer, Marek Gilscher and Karel Divish came out in favor of General Pavel, as well as a number of political parties, including the SPOLU coalition, Starosts and Independents, the Green Party, SNK European Democrats, Senator 21.
Incumbent Milos Zeman and the Communist Party of the Czech Republic and Moravia called on Andrei Babis to vote.
The correspondent of the Russian service media asked Czech political experts to assess the chances of victory of the two candidates.
“Babis has a very high anti-odds”
On the eve of the first polling day of the Czech presidential election, Marek Příhoda, co-director of the Boris Nemtsov University Center for Russian Studies in Prague at Charles University, told the media Russian service correspondent that all polls Previous opinion polls showed that the gap between those who entered the second round of candidates is 17% in favor of Peter Pavel.
“We do not expect any surprises, and the candidate who took third place actively supported him (Petra Pavel – AI) not only in words, but also in deeds. There are two different paths for the development of the Republic Czech Republic, and here we have to remember what role the president plays in the political system of the Czech Republic. He can really influence real politics, but the powers of the president are limited by the Constitution. Secondly, if you look at how the candidates respond to the key questions of domestic and foreign policy, the answers are not very different. This also applies to the attitude towards Ukraine, although here too there are nuances. On the part of General Pavel, there is unequivocal support for Ukraine, and on the part of Babiš, yes, we support Ukraine, but we must coordinate with our allies and take into account Czech interests,” notes the Czech expert.
Both Babiš and Pavel support the Czech Republic’s membership of the EU and NATO, both stressing that they will take into account the path followed by the government of the Czech Republic. At the same time, Paul’s victory ensures that opposing politicians will try to reconcile, and the tendency to pursue constructive discussion will prevail in society.
While the victory of Andrei Babish, on the contrary, will mean the continuation of the split in society, which is demonstrated by his aggressive campaign.
Marek Prihoda notes that there were no serious mistakes on the part of Petr Pavel and his team which could affect the final outcome of the elections. “Compared to previous presidential campaigns, Milos Zeman won in the first round. Here too, one sees in Pavel’s probable victory the great potential of the people who voted in the first round for the candidates who took 3rd and 4th places, who are now most likely to vote for him. Perhaps none of those who voted for Nerudova will vote for Babish. At the very least, they will stay at home. Babis has a very high anti-rating – a large number of voters will not vote for him under any circumstances. His growth potential is limited, even the party close to him did not support him. Populists will probably vote for Babiš, but that’s only 4% of Czech voters,” notes Marek Prihoda.
“The two candidates have a completely different approach to the problem of Ukrainian refugees and assistance to Ukraine”
Journalist and publicist Maria Stroeva-Valechkova, who lives in the Czech Republic, points out: “The difference between the candidates who made it to the second round of the presidential elections is fundamental. They represent different political forces and different electorates.
In a commentary for the media Russian Service, she recalled that first-round favorite Pyotr Pavel is a hereditary soldier – his father was also an officer. Opponents blame Pavel for having been a member of the Communist Party for a short time. The general does not hide it and refers this episode to the mistakes of his past life. “If in principle we do not allow people who have been members of the Communist Party in the past to actively participate in political life and hold high positions, this means that we reject all those who are over 55, which which is wrong, because some of them are also professionals. And Peter Pavel is one of those people,” Maria Stroeva is convinced.
Pavel’s rival Andrej Babiš blames his rival for his lack of political experience, pointing out that he himself was prime minister of the Czech Republic. “But the fact is that Babiš is not just an oligarch who was recently convicted in a European Union subsidy fraud case. The fact is that he is a pure liar and a cynic. And when a recent debate, he said that in case of a Russian attack on Poland and the Baltic countries, he, as president, would not send a single Czech military there. terrible indignation – he called Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, asked him to contact the Polish leadership and let it be known that he had been misunderstood, ”explains the interlocutor of media.
By the way, after the explosion of the Vrbetica ammunition depot in April 2021, Babis, who was still the head of the Czech government, said: “Moscow destroyed our mutual relations, which are now in a frozen state” . True, two months later, Babiš expressed his intention “to improve relations with Russia” and added that consultations on the continuation of relations with Moscow would be held in Prague.
Maria Stroeva also notes that the Czech Republic is a parliamentary republic and the country’s president is extremely limited in his powers, but he represents the republic on the international stage: “And, of course, such statements are completely unacceptable for the coming. President. Especially since the Czech Republic, along with Poland, was among the first countries of the former socialist bloc to join NATO. Poland is our neighbour, the Baltic countries are also nearby, so Babis’ words caused such a resonance.
Moreover, the two candidates have a completely different approach to the problem of Ukrainian refugees and aid to Ukraine. The fact is that the Czech Republic – the country that received Ukrainian refugees per capita more than any other country in the world – a country of ten million people received four hundred thousand refugees. It is both a material and a psychological burden, but the Czechs carry this burden with pride. So here is Babiš, and the forces behind him say that it is impossible to strain Czech citizens and reduce their standard of living. Although he still does not speak directly about the refusal to help Ukraine.
What, during the televised debate, Pavel very worthily opposed to him, saying that Babish is simply in principle uncharacteristic of solidarity with the Ukrainian people, who need help even at the cost of a temporary decrease in one’s own comfort.
The journalist draws attention to the fact that Andrej Babis during his election campaign is playing on the fear of war, which is quite strong in Czech society, repeating that he is against war and will not let the country get involved in it. train.
“Furthermore, he said that he would call everyone who was involved in the war, including Putin and Zelenskyyy, invite them to the Czech castle and settle everything. To which Pavel reasonably objected that the Czech Republic was not in able to stop this war, but that it should fulfill its allied duties as much as possible – both as a member of NATO and as a member of the EU”, argues Maria Stroeva.
At the same time, the former prime minister has loyal supporters among Czech voters who believe in his populist promises to raise pensions and salaries, despite the president having no such powers.
Speaking about the possible outcome of the second round, Stroeva stresses that much will depend on the turnout of voters, although on January 13-14 it was quite high.
The advantages of Peter Pavel include the fact that he, being a military man with extensive experience, knows well how to calculate the risks to the security of his country. Including in the information confrontation with Russia and China, and for the current situation, when the Western world is forced to accept challenges from the East, such qualities of a candidate for of Head of State can be searched.
Another presidential candidate in the Czech Republic, the former rector of the Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry in Brno, Danusha Nerudova, who obtained 13.9% of the Czech vote in the first round, stopped her supporters to vote for Petr Pavel in the second round, noting that the main “evil” is Andrei Babish.
“If General Pavel wins, then a fundamentally new situation will arise in the Czech Republic”
Political scientist Alexander Morozov describes the election campaign in the Czech Republic as “very spectacular” because the candidates who made it to the second round “clearly represent important and different tendencies in Czech politics”.
In a conversation with a correspondent for the Russian media service, Morozov described the campaign conducted by Babish’s headquarters as “pretty dirty and dangerous”. “It is designed for a strategy of gross division of the electorate. In the first round, Andrei Babish lost half a percent, and all expert assessments boiled down to the fact that he had nowhere to get the necessary votes to defeat his competitor. That’s why the campaign was so crude on his part to get either a lower turnout or extra votes, in a very crude way, compromising Petr Pavel. But at the same time, we see that the bookmakers are confidently betting on General Pavel’s victory, and this will most likely happen, ”said the political scientist.
And asks the question: “What will happen next? “. “I must say that Babiš and his team used the theme of war and peace very actively between the two towers. It was their main subject during these two weeks. And Andrei Babish’s main thesis was: “I will bring you peace!” I will not let the Czech Republic be dragged into the war! It is completely unclear what his real policies as president would have been if Babiš had won, since he is also a supporter of the European Union and the strengthening of NATO, so it is not entirely clear s he would implement the ideas he expressed during the electoral debates. But, nevertheless, the main idea is simple – if General Pavel wins, then a fundamentally new situation will arise in the Czech Republic, ”says Alexander Morozov.
And he explains that for a long time the government and the parliamentary majority in the Czech Republic did not agree with the President of the Republic, Milos Zeman. And if General Petr Pavel wins, there will be a strong alliance between the parliament, the president and the government. “These will be constant supporters of European integration, the strengthening of the eastern flank of NATO, the vigorous development of the Czech economy, etc. If Babish wins, then the conflict between the branches of power will continue,” fears Alexander Morozov.