“I hope I’m wrong,” Gen. Mike Minihan wrote in a memo. “But my gut tells me we will fight in 2025.” According to Pentagon officials, this forecast is not in line with official US military estimates.
According to Reuters, Mike Minihan’s note was dated February 1 but was sent on January 27. The general’s views demonstrate the concern of the highest echelons of the US military over a possible attempt by China to establish control over Taiwan. The United States and Taiwan will hold elections in 2024, which could potentially give China an excuse to take military action, Minihan writes.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier in January that he highly doubted the increase in Chinese military activity near the Taiwan Strait was a sign of Beijing’s impending invasion of the island. .
In recent years, China has increased its diplomatic, military and economic pressure on the island. The Taiwanese government says it wants peace but will defend itself if attacked.
US Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said in response to a Reuters request for comment that military rivalry with China is a central issue: “We remain focused on working with our allies and partners to maintain a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific”.
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