February 1, 2023 a discussion took place at the media studio on the results and prospects of the war launched by Russia in Ukraine. US experts shared their views on what is happening now and the outlook for Ukraine, the region and the world – almost a year after the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Here are some comments from the panelists:
About the course of the war
George Barros, geospatial intelligence team leader and analyst specializing in Russia and Ukraine at the Institute for the Study of War:
At this moment, we believe that the Russians are preparing a new decisive phase of the offensive, probably in eastern Ukraine, which will take place within the next six months. In some scenarios, this can happen in 2-3 months.
There are several prerequisites for this. Apparently, in the Kremlin, after regularly repeated setbacks and defeats throughout the year – in Kiev, Kherson, Kharkiv – they finally thought of serious measures that would allow them to treat what is happening as a real war. And only now is Putin doing what he had to do even before the invasion. We see that the Russians are saving their forces. In addition to the 300,000 mobilized in September, there are approximately 150,000 more who, most likely, will be involved in the new phase of the offensive…”
***The Russians are trying to regroup their forces. They also use Belarus as a training center.
*** There are no fresh reinforcements in Russia, so they constantly use mobilization, PMC “Wagner” with prisoners… They are preparing a new wave of mobilization in the near future.
***Combat power includes elements such as leadership, cohesion and initiative. In Ukraine, we see that the mobilized Russian soldiers are not fighting well… their morale is in a terrible state… Conversely, Ukrainian morale is very high, despite heavy losses… However, I I will point out that the Russian armed forces are still very dangerous. It will not be an easy victory for the Ukrainians, Ukraine still needs Western help.
We sent HIMARS to Ukraine in June, which allowed them to liberate Kherson months later in November… Delays [с поставкой вооружений] make more and more Ukrainians die… In the end, we decided to give tanks to Ukraine – half of what they asked for… We have to ask ourselves: if we want the Ukraine wins this war and continues to exist as a state, we must do our best to help it.
Melinda Haring – Senior Researcher, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center:
It was a disaster for me to see the war in Ukraine. Assessing the past year, it is impossible to believe how much the world has changed in 365 days. The community of experts, of which I am a part, got it wrong on many counts. In particular, we thought the Russian army was huge, but that turned out not to be the case. We thought the Ukrainian army was small, but everything turned out to be exactly the opposite. The Russian army was very weak and the Ukrainian army has been reformed significantly since 2014. Many analysts also believed that the Ukrainians could not hold up, but how wrong they were. The vast majority of experts were surprised at how much Europe has changed this year… So, after the Russian invasion, the world has become completely different.
About Negotiations
George Barros: Negotiations are usually driven by what is happening on the battlefield. We must do everything we can to ensure that Ukraine can negotiate on the terms it prefers, and that depends on the realities on the battlefield. For negotiations to take place, Ukraine must regain control of all territories that are de jure internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, including Donbass and Crimea.
*** Ukraine will become a bastion, a defender of Europe, protecting our allies. She has extensive practical combat experience. Our military academies have a lot to learn from the Ukrainian army.
Melinda Haring: The Ukrainians must give back as much of their territory as possible in order to have a better position at the negotiating table… The first problem is time. So far, time is on Moscow’s side and it will be increasingly difficult to keep the coalition going. The second is fatigue, we can’t keep everyone focused on Ukraine all the time, it will be difficult.
On Western aid to Ukraine
Melinda Haring: A long and difficult confrontation awaits us. The Ukrainian army is exhausted, especially in the Bakhmut region, and it is important that it gets the respite and recuperation it needs.
We must first provide the Ukrainians with the military assistance they need now. Before the start of this spring phase of the offensive, such a task is essential. We can’t sit down. The United States is leading this effort and Europe will follow. Let’s not wring our hands with discussions about the supply of F-16 fighter jets. Let’s do it and do it now to finish it ASAP.
On internal problems in Ukraine
Melinda Haring: After 2014, Ukraine created a number of anti-corruption institutions. Not all succeeded, but I think a serious struggle [с коррупцией] continues, civil society contributes very actively to this and is not afraid to demand accountability and voice the problems… Thus, Ukraine has made significant progress in the fight against corruption… I am sure and I hope that Ukraine will not only defeat Russia, but also solve their corruption problems once and for all.
*** Ukraine is now a modern and creative country, and it will be the first European power after perestroika. There are many innovations in Ukraine that you won’t see in many other European countries. We just need to win the war.
Ruslan Petrichka – head of the Ukrainian service “media”:
Ukrainians show great interest in media’s Ukrainian service. Over the years, we have been in a unique position: we are here, we have access to all journalists in the United States, and we can also be in Ukraine, on the ground. This makes us a unique organization that can receive information here and distribute it in Ukraine, and vice versa, collect information in Ukraine and distribute it in the United States.
Ukraine is not an ideal country, but I now see a lot of desire for change, both from politicians and non-governmental organizations.
Ukraine has a number of tools to fight corruption. We have people who are free to express their concerns about this and we have responsible officials who deal with this issue.
Ukrainians are very interested in the American way of life. The biggest problem in Ukraine can become a big plus. Many people who left Ukraine want to come back. Some will stay, but many will return. Returning to Ukraine, they will no longer be able to live in the old way and will bring their new experience to the restoration of the country.
Moderator Miroslava Gongadze concluded the meeting with a quote from the famous American historian Timothy Snyder: “The victory of Ukraine will confirm the principle of self-reliance, allow the integration of Europe to continue and allow people of good will to return with renewed vigor to solving other global problems.”
