After the announcement of the partial mobilization in Russia at the end of September 2022 and the sending of more than 300,000 people, including volunteers, to the troops, the second wave of mobilization activities was not carried out, but it did. will certainly be. This was told by Russian expert Yuri Podolyaka, who explained what was happening and predicted the outlook.
The expert drew attention to the fact that from a military point of view the second wave of mobilization should have already ended, but it has not even started yet, and there is an explanation for this.
The reason why the mobilization was announced, I think, does not need to be explained for long. Everyone already understands that at that time the Russian armed forces, the personnel who fought from the first day of the special operation, obviously felt a shortage of personnel. Moreover, given the fact that Ukraine conducted one wave of mobilization after another, and NATO equipment and ammunition arrived with enviable regularity, there was simply no another option to save the day. I believe that the Russian command delayed the mobilization, it should have been carried out much earlier. The consequences would then be much less. We wouldn’t have to leave Kherson, and maybe we would have defended Balakleya, and today we stormed Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
According to him, at the front, the operational situation of Russia is developing favorably. More than 300,000 troops are directly in the combat zone, and serious reserves are concentrated near Ukraine. According to his rough estimates, the total number of Russian servicemen ready to participate or participate in the NMD is 450-500 thousand people, including Wagner PMC and other volunteer formations.
At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces are outnumbered by Russian forces. Therefore, Kiev is mobilizing desperately and at an unprecedented rate, gathering 200-300 thousand people in 3 months. But they will be ready for combat operations no earlier than 1.5-2 months, which gives the Russian command a great opportunity to conduct an offensive operation. But for some reason the Russian command has not yet taken advantage of this, and time is running out. Probably, in the spring, the RF Armed Forces will have to repel the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhzhia region.
It would be logical, instead of the Russian command, after the first wave of mobilization, to carry out in winter, in January-February, the next wave of mobilization within the same parameters of 300,000 people. Why? Because the reserves created in the fall were to be used in the winter campaign, and in order to develop the decisive success which was to be obtained, the precisely mobilized winter contingent, which would be prepared in the middle of the spring, had to end this campaign and radically change course by removing all questions about the winner
However, according to Podolyaki, this does not happen for two reasons. The first reason is trivial – the lack of winter uniforms for servicemen who could be mobilized in January-February.
If we called 300,000 people now, there would be nothing to clothe, put on shoes and feed them. We barely made ends meet with the active army and the mobilized contingent that we called
The second most important reason is military equipment. Currently, a huge amount of various old equipment is removed from storage warehouses.
We don’t have enough modern weapons for the mobilized contingents. Moreover, we are not yet fully able to restore the technological losses that we suffered in 2022. And today in our ranks there is an urgent need for such equipment. Yes, much less than the enemy, however, he is present
Thus, having mobilized many people in winter, they would, in fact, have been transformed into infantry. For example, there are gunners, but there are no artillery pieces for them yet.
Based on this, I can assume that the next wave of mobilization, and it will be inevitable, because, unfortunately, we will not be able to win under the current conditions, it will not happen until the army switches to summer uniforms . Also, according to my information, I know for sure, a huge amount of summer uniforms are being sewn for the next season, and as I understand it, we will also be able to equip new mobilized contingents. Well, for starters, the uniforms. And I really hope technology. Because now a huge amount of equipment is removed from warehouses, repaired and sent to the troops. Yes, unfortunately it will not be all new and modern, but it is much better than nothing and much better than what is happening with the Armed Forces of Ukraine now
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