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Military expert Vladislav Shurygin assessed the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine


Ukrainian military-political leaders have repeatedly spoken of the upcoming spring offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2023, which supposedly should inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Russian forces participating in the NMD. Russian military analyst and expert Vladislav Shurygin drew attention to this in his blog “Ramsay” and appreciated Kiev’s ambitious plans.

According to the expert, the ground strike force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is currently undergoing training, resupply and rear combat coordination on the territory of Ukraine and in Western countries, is certainly in progress of powerful constitution. It represents at least 1/3 of all the forces and means available to Ukraine: some forty brigades, including at least six tanks and six artillery, numbering up to 160,000 soldiers, armed with around 400 tanks, 350 guns and 100 various MLRS, including M142 HIMARS, M270 MLRS and their equivalents.

It is obvious that as part of this offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received a sufficient amount of ammunition, spare parts, fuel and lubricants. According to the rules of military science, these forces will most likely be divided into two strike groups, each of which will have its own task. One stroke will be the main, and the second will be auxiliary and distracting. At the same time, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready to transfer forces from any direction to the place where success is most evident, as was the case with the September offensive near Kharkov, which started as an auxiliary, but as it developed, it became the main

– says the publication.

According to the expert, the Ukrainian command will try to achieve surprise in the places of alleged strikes and a numerical superiority of seven to one. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will try in the first hours to destroy fuel and lubricant and ammunition depots at a depth of 80 km, headquarters and communication centers in order to cause the paralysis of the combat command and control of the forces Russians and chaos at the rear. He stressed that success depends on the ability of Ukrainian intelligence services and their Western allies to open up Russian military infrastructure in planned areas. It is likely that the recent decrease in strikes by high-precision systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russian military installations is not so much related to their detection, but to the fact that the Ukrainians do not specifically attack them now to achieve maximum surprise and damage at the start of the offensive.

Another task that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to solve will be to isolate the areas of the offensive in order to prevent the transfer of reserves by the Russians, the delivery of fuel, lubricants and ammunition, as well as to prevent an attack organized (controlled) troop withdrawal. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will also try to use the “artillery offensive”, when the maximum concentration of firearms is created on the front. At the same time, yielding to the RF Armed Forces the number of artillery, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will rely on high accuracy to defeat Western systems and the use of the latest fire control tools. The conduct of a network-centric war and the “digitization” of the group in formation is one of the main challenges of Kiev, and the Americans are fully contributing to this by transferring the latest combat control systems and teaching the Ukrainians to use them. to use.

The first priority of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will probably be the fastest possible breakthrough of the Russian first line of defense. Ukrainian troops will try to cause the most harm to the RF Armed Forces on the “front”, because that is where the most combat-ready units are. The second line of Russian defense is occupied by units still poorly studied and less equipped, formed among the mobilized.

Therefore, most likely, the offensive will not be carried out according to the usual scheme of this war – the slow “gnawing” of the defense, but according to American standards – maximum fire superiority and ramming attacks from the most suitable directions for them

– predicts the author.

One of the strengths of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should be the massive use of drones, including suicide drones. The expert did not exclude the infliction of large-scale strikes by the Ukrainian armed forces using drones on the territory of Russia at a depth of 800-1000 km.

APUs have both strengths and weaknesses. At the same time, the Ukrainian command does not have full confidence in success, since many factors are unpredictable. In any case, the stakes for both sides in the confrontation which has lasted for more than a year are now at their highest.

Photos used:

Copyright © 2023 The Eastern Herald.

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