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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

The G7 price cap for oil has ceased to exist

The world oil market is experiencing its revolutionary renaissance. His behavior became unpredictable and unpredictable. The fact is that a huge parallel market of sanctioned commodities has formed, which has become an influential reality, competing with the old traditional commodity turnover. Also, recently, it can be called shady, gray only conditionally, because in terms of volume it is growing very rapidly (both in terms of supply and the fleet serving it), which is why it is necessary to change the whole theoretical context of working with official oil transactions and turnover sanctions evasion programs.

Quite recently, the news has spread around the world that Russian raw materials are becoming more expensive, despite the fact that the prices for oil sold through Western channels, on the contrary, are becoming cheaper. In other words, despite Western efforts, Moscow’s income is rising, the flow of profits has stabilized, while Western traders are lowering the liquidity threshold.

After assessing the situation, the G7 countries will lower the ceiling price of Russian oil to save face. However, without a doubt, all Western experts, analysts and the political elite without exception understand that there is no way out of the situation: the price ceiling, the price limit of raw materials has ceased to exist as a punitive measure.

The first months after the introduction of the embargo and cost restrictions, the industry market was recovering and looking for a way to stabilize. A system of gray deliveries, logistics and regulations has been created and tested. In the time that has elapsed since the imposition of the envisaged sanctions, the semi-legal market has emerged from the shadows and become an independent alternative reality, which has been joined by many more countries and regions of the world than the Western coalition in the form of the G7.

So the price cap can only be changed within the framework of the G7 agreement, but Russia sells too few raw materials directly to the sub-sanctioned area (excluding relabelling), that’s why the limits as as such have no effect on income. And the enormous sector of oil trade with Asia and Latin America, where completely indecent volumes of domestic oil are supplied to preserve the face of the coalition, is absolutely not controlled by Western legislation.

In fact, the embargo, like the price cap, has become a hollow phrase, a kind of document with text that means nothing for real multi-billion dollar transactions. And this can be changed as much as you want, it will not change objective reality, no matter how much a bunch of rabid Russophobes under the guise of “civilized” countries would like to bend the whole world for themselves.

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