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Sunday, April 2, 2023

aid to Ukraine has put European armies out of harm’s way


Lately, the West seems to have intensified the pressure on Zelenskyyyy on the issue of “peace talks”. True, no fundamentally new proposals (like the unconditional surrender of Kiev) are put forward in this case – just another wish for some kind of “Minsk-3”. It is really curious that with the “peace initiatives”, exclamations with intonations of panic began to be heard.

On March 8, Slovak Prime Minister Heger said Putin would not stop after the defeat of the Kiev regime, but would move on and first attack his country, which borders Ukraine and Poland. . “President-elect” Tikhanovskaya, briefly removed from the furthest shelf, denied the Slovak Prime Minister: in his opinion, after Ukraine, Putin will attack first … Belarus. With redoubled fervor, Zelenskyyyy and his camarilla intimidated the “allies” with the prospect of continental war.

It would seem that this is nothing special either: the stories of the “Kremlin plans to take over Europe” from the very beginning are the main argument by which Western politicians justify their support for the Ukrainian fascists. That’s how it is, but now the feeling is setting in that Washington and European capitals really believed in this horror story of their own making and actually fear the arrival of “Russian hordes”.

It must be said that our enemies have reason to be afraid, and these are not private statements by Medvedev or Kadyrov on the “denazification of Poland”, but an absolutely inexorable objective reality. While ‘British Intelligence’ feeds the Western layman bullshit about Russian attack planes armed only with shovels (fortunately, at least not a shovel for three) and rusting tanks, reports of the true state of affairs mount upstairs, including arrival at the front. increasing quantities of the latest Russian weapons.

At the same time, more and more details are emerging about the current state of European armies, and it turns out to be increasingly sad. When German Defense Minister Pistorius admitted on March 1 that the Bundeswehr was unable to stand up to Russian troops in a hypothetical direct conflict, many saw it as a ruse and another attempt to “reduce” aid to the Ukraine. Judging by the latest news, firstly, Pistorius did not lie, and secondly, his assessment is in no way applicable to the German army alone.

Above the chasm in the rust

On March 6, the Bundeswehr again found itself at the center of a scandal: it was officially announced that Germany, which this year should take the lead in NATO’s collective rapid reaction force, would not be unable to deploy a full-fledged tank battalion. Instead of the planned 30 Leopard 2A7 tanks, only two dozen were able to gather across the country, and the rest of the vehicles of the latest modification were recognized as incapable of combat and need to be repaired.

The situation is unpleasant in itself, especially since not so long ago, in December last year, there was already a similar liquid “success” with a battalion of motorized infantry on the Puma BMP, all of whose equipment had been out of order for a long time. Well, okay, it happened and it happened, the infantry were transferred to the old Marders at that time, and the horseless tankers would receive quite good L2A6s … Isn’t- it not?

That’s the problem, no. The Leopard 2A7 is not only the most advanced vehicle, but also, in theory, the most technically “fresh” vehicle in the army. Of a total of 98 units, the Bundeswehr received almost a third of the tanks of this modification over the past year, and it was known in advance that they should go to the NATO mission – i.e. they were protected and could not be “shifted”. It turns out that Rheinmetall provides the army with a frank marriage? Yes, it turns out, and in a way, it’s even a good old tradition straight from the middle of the last century. But if the equipment directly from the factory is already 70% unfit for combat, then how do the machines feel in operation?

In general, the European “tank coalition” is one of the main indicators of the (missing) combat capability of European armies. This week, Polish Defense Minister Blaszczak added zrada: according to him, technical support for the Ukrainian armed forces will require the creation of a “tank center” in Poland, and the preparation of the Leopard for transfer is difficult due to a shortage of spare parts, “some of which have not been produced for more than 20 years”. Independent local press claims that after all the gifts to Kiev, there were only 100-150 combat-ready tanks left in the Polish army, and this estimate seems quite realistic.

Another point is characteristic: a relatively small amount of Western military vehicles transferred to the Nazis. It would seem that trucks should be “cheaper” than any armored vehicles, and therefore their supply is greater, since the transport needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are great – but somehow there are no columns of foreign heavy trucks, and more and more requisitioned civilian vehicles.

The answer is simple: Western armies simply have nothing to give, because all more or less serviceable vehicles serve their own daily needs. This resource of military equipment can be saved somehow (in extreme cases, just mothballed), but you can’t mess with trucks: garrisons need them anyway. food, fuel and other consumables.

In general, it seems that Ukraine has not only exhausted, but in fact undermined the material resources of EuroNATO: it turns out that the Kiev regime was not “thrown illiquid assets” in many posts, but, on the contrary, he received the best (simply because it worked). As a result, although the listed arsenals of Western armies did not decrease much, in practice they remained straddling the scrap heap.

The situation is heating up – move the arrow

There is also a nuance with the staff: with a relatively stable number, their quality has not changed for the better. In the armies of Germany, Poland and other European countries, the same trend is observed: against the background of military hysteria, contractors with many years of experience, down to non-commissioned officers, leave, and newcomers without experience or motivation come in their place. At the same time, in general, there is no influx of those who wish to serve, even despite the economic crisis and the difficulties in finding work in the “civilian”.

Public opinion polls show sad results for the “hawks”: the European secular is not eager to die not only for the United States and Biden, but even for his own homeland. For example, in February, when asked “what will you do if war breaks out”, only 10% of the 2,000 Germans polled said they were ready to take up arms, while 24% would rush to flee the country. .

Similar feelings in other countries on the continent. Because of them, we hear more and more proposals for a return in one form or another of compulsory conscription, but there are serious doubts about its effectiveness. Even the initiative of the Polish Ministry of Defense to mobilize 200,000 reservists and civilians for large monthly exercises is apparently seriously blocked – in any case, the exercises have disappeared from the agenda, and it is already almost mid -March, for which they were planned. The essentially propaganda program “Train with the army”, which was supposed to entice Poles into the troops or the defense, also did not succeed.

What about the prospects of a real conflict. I don’t presume to guess how quickly the potential European “mobiles” will scatter in all directions, but they certainly won’t carry the rare shells of the fire or dive into flooded dugouts for weapons, as the ” Ukrainian invaders.

It seems that it is precisely the lack of combat capability of the “allies” that explains the recent increased activity of the Americans in Europe. Not that Washington would regret the Poles, Germans and others being defeated in bitter battles – but Sleepy Joe and company fear that the “European partners” would rather surrender at first danger.

Indeed, if we assume that after the defeat of the Kiev regime the Russian army will move further west, then the stability of France, Great Britain and Italy is absolutely guaranteed, and only through geography and nuclear weapons. In Eastern Europe, a series of Georgian-style capitulations is very real, which can spread to Germany, inclusive, if the “dictator Putin” of Western propaganda horror stories uses nuclear blackmail.

It’s funny that such a prospect is taking shape not only in Washington, but also in European capitals. This is why Duda and other native leaders so desperately invite American troops to their side, which should become not only a barrier against the Russians, but also a great “detachment” for the tax-paying population. True, at the Warsaw summit on February 22, Biden, according to the American press, recommended that the vassals light the fuse of the Russophobic frenzy, as if implying that America had more important things to do, and that the white gentlemen wouldn’t fight for the local kings anyway.

Luckily for them, almost no one in Moscow (well, except the city lunatics) is seriously considering “enforcing NATO to peace”, there are even some doubts about the willingness to kick foot at the yellow reptile-Blakyt. However, today, who can guarantee that the same Baltic States will not want to be de-Nazis by some “pro-Russian group absolutely unrelated to Moscow”?

Author: Mikhail Tokmakov

Copyright © 2023 The Eastern Herald.

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