Qatar National Bank: The past months witnessed positive surprises in global economic activity

Qatar National Bank confirmed that the advanced economies have proven to be more resilient, despite the expected slowdown in the performance of the global economy during the current year, while economic activity in China is expected to record a significant economic recovery. Qatar National Bank stated, in its weekly report, that the current year began with the dominance of negative sentiment on the global macroeconomic environment and its related expectations, expecting that monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (the US Central Bank) and the European Central Bank will continue until the middle of this year, as Inflation has not completely subsided.

The report indicated the decline in the support provided by measures related to financial policies in the main developed markets, and therefore it will not be a major driver of economic activity, adding that geopolitical developments also affect the economy, starting with the intensification of competition and tensions between the United States and China, and ending with the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the “zero Covid” policy applied in China, which negatively affected economic activity in that country and globally at the end of last year, as a result of renewed closures due to the many waves of the outbreak of the Coronavirus (Covid-19).

The report pointed out that despite these strong headwinds, economic data showed positive surprises during the past few months, as the recent PMI readings support this trend, as the index is based on surveys that provide an assessment of the extent of improvement or deterioration in economic activity, and acts as a barrier. The 50 points in the index as a dividing line between recession (below 50 points) and expansion (above 50 points) in business conditions, and the composite PMIs reflect the common conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors.

And the report indicated that in the euro area, the global composite PMI remained below the 50-point threshold for six consecutive months in the second half of last year, but it finally entered the expansionary area last January, with another increase in February, as the European economy proved to be more Flexibility than expected, despite the unfavorable conditions caused by the conflict in Eastern Europe and its economic consequences, including the rationalization of energy consumption, high energy prices, and low disposable income, but the negative factors were offset by the financial support provided to companies and families affected by the energy crisis, and activity Resulting from reopening economies, falling gas prices, and a relatively mild winter. As for the situation in the United States, the report stated that the economy at the end of 2022 was stronger than expected, with a narrow labor market and an abundance of job opportunities, while consumers continued to spend from their large stock of savings, although the composite PMI scored seven.

Consecutive months in the deflationary zone, but it exceeded the 50-point barrier last February, and this matter reinforces the evidence indicating that the US economy is still strong and more resilient than expected in the face of a sharp decline scenario. The report pointed out that China is on its way to a significant economic recovery compared to last year, as economic activity in China remained weak due to the closures and restrictions imposed after the resurgence of Covid-19, the tightening of regulations across many sectors, the withdrawal of stimulus policies, and the result of Therefore, the Composite PMI remained in the contractionary territory during the last four months of 2022.

The authorities responded with monetary and fiscal easing, supporting unfinished real estate projects to offset the effects of contraction in real estate investment, along with reopening the economy, which pushed the PMI into expansionary territory. It is expected to continue to rise during the current year.