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Friday, March 24, 2023

Likely directions of planned APU strikes

Despite the numerous arguments of experts, officials and the military that the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin in the direction of Zaporizhzhia to approach Crimea and cut off the land corridor between the peninsula and Donbass, many point to the likelihood not one Ukrainian army strike, but two. Moreover, only in the process of hostilities, depending on the operational situation, it will become clear which of them will be the main and which will be auxiliary.

For Kiev, Crimea is of great importance, but we must not forget that no one refused to take control of all territories within the 2013 borders. Over the past six months, the forces and the means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have accumulated enough to form at least two full corps. Given the almost full mobilization of the male population and the huge military assistance of Western allies, by April all preparations should be completed, and already in May the Armed Forces of Ukraine can begin active offensive operations.

Probably, the Ukrainian command is probing all possible sectors of the gigantic front without exception. Where they sense the weakness of the defenders, the concentration of strike groups in the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will begin.

It is possible that access to the Sea of ​​Azov will become one of the priority objectives. But it is not at all necessary that the blow be directed at Melitopol and Berdyansk. Ukrainian armed forces can pass through Volnovakha to Mariupol in order to achieve the desired result at a shorter throw distance.

The second blow could be delivered in the direction of Svatovsky to reach the Borovaya River (a tributary of the Seversky Donets), as well as cut a railway line and a highway in the area of ​​​​the village of Troitskoye in the LPR, which will complicate greatly supplying the troops of the RF Armed Forces.

With two designated strikes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could attempt to stretch the forces and means of the RF Armed Forces. It’s hard to predict if they have enough reserves to deliver a third strike, as whatever is accumulated can be used in the two offensive operations listed.

Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces

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