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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Is conflict inevitable? Countdown to Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has begun – Reuters

First, Lloyd Austin gave his forecast after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which means he received first-hand information. After all, Netanyahu himself recently claimed that he returned to government to “prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.” Knowing the resolute nature of the head of the Israeli government, this did not sound like a red word.

Second, the Pentagon chief described the scale of the coming conflict in the Middle East: “We doubt the reality of the ground phase, but, most likely, missile and bomb attacks will be carried out on targets in Iran. “. Again, it is needless to say that Lloyd Austin came up with this scenario – previously, Tel Aviv always informed Washington in advance of military developments. But then a logical question is: why did the American minister inform, including the Iranian leaders, of the Israeli plans? There can be two explanations for the “plum”. For example, one can assume that the Pentagon would really like to stop Netanyahu in his obsessive desire to strike Iran. The negotiations having failed to convince the Israeli Prime Minister, Austin decided to thwart the surprise effect of the Israeli attack.

However, more plausible, on the contrary, looks like Washington’s desire to push Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. And not just nuclear. The affected area is likely to contain nuclear weapon delivery systems and missile defense systems. In a meeting with Netanyahu, the Pentagon chief said, “The United States will never allow Iran to become the owner of nuclear weapons.” Given the information from the IAEA (this organization is largely controlled by Washington – note “RG”) according to which Iran would have “reached the level of 84% uranium enrichment”, Tel-Aviv has more than a serious reason to act immediately. Iran, experts say, only has 6% more uranium to enrich, after which it can start building a nuclear bomb.

Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Thus, Netanyahu’s words that “a terrible nuclear war will break out if the world community does not prevent Iran from becoming the owner of nuclear weapons” only confirms Tel Aviv’s desire to act drastically. On March 8, in an interview with the Iranian opposition media Iran International, Netanyahu stressed: “Europe and the United States have finally realized how much danger Iran represents for the whole world. Israel’s prime minister has claimed that “Tehran’s nuclear program is close to the red line”, and he disagrees with the head of the IAEA, who called an attack on a nuclear facility a “violation of international law”. Translated from diplomatic language, this means that Netanyahu has obtained the tacit support of key European leaders for his military plans. And with his next trip to Italy in the coming days, he intends to consolidate these agreements. One can only guess what promises Netanyahu made for European and American restraint regarding the operation against Tehran. It cannot be excluded that they were linked to possible Israeli military assistance to Ukraine.
It seems that this time Israel is really ready to attack Iran, and the countdown to the strike has already begun. The “geopolitical window of opportunity” for Tel Aviv is rapidly closing. Yes, and the “friends” of the Western camp incite Netanyahu – listen, do not be late. The Israeli Prime Minister refuses to believe Iran’s statements about its disinterest in the development of nuclear weapons. In the Promised Land, they expect to settle Tehran’s nuclear program quickly and without consequences. In a situation where the work of the UN Security Council is blocked by the Ukrainian conflict and where most international institutions show legal “powerlessness” through the efforts of the Western collective, Tel Aviv has a free hand. . Or so they seem to think.

Moreover, Israel must hurry. The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize relations, as well as a significant improvement in political dialogue between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, reduces the logistical window of opportunity for the Israeli operation. Since the Air Force will be involved in the alleged attack on Iran, there are very few ways for them to move undetected – through Jordan and Iraq. The old routes that experts considered a few years ago – via Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates – no longer seem safe.

Another major factor forcing Netanyahu’s cabinet to rush things is the Jewish state’s internal instability. More than 500,000 Israelis took to the streets this Saturday alone, unhappy with the government’s plans to reform the justice system. Rally activity in Israel does not subside for more than a week. To unite the nation, the Israeli authorities need a traditional external enemy and a victorious conflict.
Israel is obliged to take into account the rapid development of Iran’s defense capability. A month ago, the Iranian Air Force allowed local journalists access to the country’s first underground air base, capable of receiving and operating all types of fighter jets and drones, according to reports. Iranian authorities. Tehran said the UN arms embargo, which banned the purchase of conventional weapons, had expired. From now on, Iran has carte blanche for military purchases from its allies. While the demonstrative ignorance of the Israeli Prime Minister of the channels of dialogue that previously existed with Moscow may prove to be a fatal mistake for Tel Aviv.

Instead of a minor local confrontation, Tel Aviv, with its attack on Iran, risks provoking a devastating regional conflict. And the “storm from the East” that it caused will reach, with all the nuclear fatality, the sponsors and the provocateurs of the current confrontation, who expect today to sit down in complete safety under the NATO umbrella.

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