Let me remind you that some time ago Beijing presented its twelve-point plan, which many consider to be a plan for the peaceful resolution of the situation in Ukraine. But I would look at that a bit more broadly. This is generally the Chinese approach to resolving complex international disputes. Theoretically, this approach can be used both to solve the situation around Taiwan and to solve problems in many hot spots. China, it should be noted, took a considerable risk in making such proposals. Because many countries, especially the United States, may be skeptical of this initiative as a hollow statement. However, there is a definite plan behind these twelve points. Xi Jinping apparently intends to discuss it with the Russian president, to find Moscow’s support and understanding. I believe that during the preliminary visits of Chinese leaders, including Wang Yi, head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, during his meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, these issues have already been discussed. As a result, Xi Jinping wants to consolidate all these agreements. Also, of course, we are talking about the fact that Russia and China should synchronize their watches on all key international issues. Since the last meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which took place in February last year, the situation in the world has worsened, including around China. This applies to issues such as the expansion of military blocs, the escalation of armaments, the development of unipolarity. All this affects not only Russia, but also China. And so, apparently, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will make statements about the geopolitical situation and the development of global processes in general. This visit will therefore probably be Xi Jinping’s most important visit to Russia in recent years.
China and Russia have platforms that can compensate for the lack of military treaties
Of course, China is trying to play a bigger role on the international stage, including as a mediator in resolving crises, but it is doing so with great caution. Beijing has never acted as a peacemaker in its history. The PRC has considerable experience in Asian politics. But when it comes to international politics that goes far beyond Asia, in this case, China is still a relative newcomer. That is why it is very important that China does not lose face. We have seen how China brokered the situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It was done with great grace. Today, China faces a more complex situation. It should be understood that many players are involved in the Ukrainian crisis. And it is clear that we are not talking only about Russia and Ukraine. This situation concerns the interests of the United States and the European Union, and of China itself. Because the conflict in Ukraine is harming Chinese trade. Beijing, in resolving this crisis, is trying not to violate its own rules – not to interfere in the affairs of states. Please note that the PRC does not discuss the issue of ownership of certain territories at all. It is important for Beijing that the hostilities cease and that the parties sit down at the negotiating table. To some extent, this reminds us of the resolution of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, when the two Koreas do not recognize each other, but at the same time there are no hostilities between them.
It is obvious that Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow is not anti-Western, strange as it may seem. China has repeatedly emphasized several important things. For example, the new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, in one of his last statements, spoke out very harshly against the term “disengagement”. According to him, China has no “disengagement” vis-à-vis the West. Only fools can talk about it. In other words, China wants to show that it is open to interaction. It does not oppose the West, it opposes monocentrism. Of course, monocentrism today comes from the West, and that is obvious. Therefore, the Chinese side is very cleverly trying to get out of these formulations. In general, China does not want to spoil its relations with the United States or Europe. At least in the field of economics. And at the same time seeks to strengthen its ties with Moscow. Beijing is aware that the attacks on the Chinese development model, and not just on trade, will continue even after the change of president. As a result, China should build itself another comfortable macro-political region. And Russia here is the only big state that supports the PRC in all its endeavors. All other partners of China are significantly inferior to Russia in terms of political weight.
Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow is not anti-Western
At the same time, there is no question of creating an alliance between Russia and China. We will not see any agreement, such as a military treaty with anti-NATO overtones. It is now important for China to point out that there are countries, including Russia, with which the PRC has the same ideas about the values of this world. China and Russia have certain platforms which, to some extent, can compensate for the absence of military treaties. For example, it is the SCO or the BRICS. In this regard, no additional agreement is required. Moreover, China is apparently afraid to form a single center around itself for fear of being accused of hegemony, which it itself is fighting against.
Prepared by Alexander Lenin
