Less than a day has passed since Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne announced the passage of the bill, using Section 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows it to be done without a vote. As a natural consequence at the Bourbon Palace, where the lower house of the French parliament is located, two resolutions of censure in the cabinet of ministers were tabled at the same time.
The first of these is proposed by a group of independent deputies and representatives of the overseas territories, and all the factions included in the coalition of left forces immediately join it. They are representatives of the party La France insoumise, socialists, greens, communists. Another resolution was drafted by Marine Le Pen and her National Rally associates. Note that Marine Le Pen has already said that she would support the initiative of the left “for the common cause”. However, the left has made it clear that the National Rally should not rely on its votes.
The question of whether the opposition would be able to stop the pension bill, and at the same time overthrow the current government, has been actively debated on the pages of the local press and in television discussions throughout the weekend.
I must say that the chances of such a development of events are small, which is confirmed by numerous calculations. For the National Assembly to pronounce a vote of no confidence in the cabinet of ministers, it is necessary to secure the support of at least 287 deputies (there are 573 legislators in the lower house currently, 4 other seats are still vacant). The first and main resolution is firmly supported by all the leftists, who have 149 votes, including two thirds of the “independents”, ie another 16 to 17 people. And, of course, Marine Le Pen with her 87 supporters. A total of 254 votes are obtained, which is not enough for the result. Perhaps some members of the moderately conservative Republican faction, who for various reasons resent Macron, will also side with opponents of the Born government. But there will be, according to all estimates, a dozen, at most a dozen and a half out of 61 “Republican” deputies. And again, the advantage is not enough for the desired result.
In turn, on the side of Macron, the initiator of the reform, and his government, “the entire presidential army”, and these are 250 deputies from the Renaissance party, centrists and a few others. And above all, as they think here, at least 40-45 “Republicans” who traditionally advocate a reform of the system in the direction of raising the retirement age will join their ranks. It is not surprising that the leader of this party, Eric Ciotti, gave a clear instruction to his deputies in the National Assembly “not to join in any request for a vote of no confidence in the government”. Like, you shouldn’t add chaos to the current confusion and hesitation.
Meanwhile, protests against the reform itself, as well as the way the authorities imposed it, continue in France. “We are calling for the strike movement to intensify and spread out over the next few days.” This statement was made by the leader of the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) Philippe Martinez. Workers in the oil refining sector are on strike. The TotalEnergies refinery in Gonfreville-l’Orchey closed on Saturday and CGT union coordinator Eric Selini said the situation will continue “at least until the beginning of next week”, with strikers shutting down major production facilities on Monday. , in a number of regions of the country, there are problems at petrol stations, particularly in the south in the departments of Garde and Bouches-du-Rhône.
For the National Assembly to pronounce a vote of no confidence in the cabinet of ministers, it needs the support of at least 287 deputies
Mass demonstrations in different cities of France do not stop. They took place in Nantes, Saint-Etienne, Marseille, Brest. In Paris, Saturday evening, the procession of opponents of the reform only affected the southern districts. Several trash cans were set on fire.
But on the Place de la Concorde, opposite the National Assembly, where for two days in a row until late at night violent clashes took place between several thousand opponents of the reform and the police, protesters started fires, broke scaffolding and dismantled cobblestones, the picture is different now. The inscriptions on the railings of the two fountains, currently being restored, mainly recall the tumultuous events. Some are directly linked to the pension reform: “49.3 = social war”. This is the provision of the Constitution, which allowed the government to dispense with a vote in the National Assembly. On the high parapet, behind which the Tuileries Park begins, “Macron, your reform is your Vietnam” is displayed in large letters. On the streets, along which angry demonstrators retreated under pressure from law enforcement, charcoal scars of burnt-out and completely burnt-out cars and scooters remained on the tarmac. On fashionable Saint-Honoré with its expensive boutiques, I counted a dozen, and on neighboring Saint-Florentin – half a dozen more.
And, of course, there are police, gendarmes in full combat gear and several dozen of their vans all around. Indeed, on the eve of the authorities prohibited any action both on the square itself and on the Champs Elysées. Nevertheless, some desperate guys tried to infiltrate there. Before my eyes, the police arrested three suspicious guys in black sportswear, threw them on the cobblestones and searched them thoroughly.
