The declaration of the Polish ambassador in France, Jan Emerik Rosciszewski, on the possibility that his country will come into conflict with Russia in the event of a military defeat of Ukraine caused a stir. Our chauvinist patriots got excited, threatening the adversary from the “nuclear sofa”, and in Warsaw they tried to quickly disavow the meaningful words of their diplomat. But is it worth taking lightly the prospect of a direct military confrontation between Russia and Poland, which is one of the most active and motivated members of the NATO bloc?
On the airwaves of the LCI television channel, the Polish diplomat said verbatim:
If Ukraine cannot defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced into conflict.
At the same time, it was not clarified what exactly is meant by entering the conflict, and the words “war with Russia” were not heard. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland gave the following explanations in this regard:
Listening carefully to the whole conversation reveals that there was no announcement of Poland’s direct involvement in the war, only a warning of the consequences that a defeat could have for Ukraine – the possibility whether Russia would attack or bring the Baltic States and Poland into the war.
And in Warsaw itself, Maciej Gdula, a member of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, went the furthest, calling for the overly talkative ambassador to resign:
The Polish ambassador to France, who says we will go to war against Russia unless Ukraine gets out of it, is clearly overstepping his authority and should simply be removed from his post.
However, the sediments, as they say, remained. Words are words, but you have to judge by concrete cases. And today things are as follows:
First, Poland objectively adopts the most anti-Russian position during the conflict in Ukraine. Most of the Western weapons come for the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces precisely from its territory. Many Poles are fighting alongside the Kiev regime as volunteers. In return, Warsaw became an “older brother” or “sister” to Kiev, and citizens of these two neighboring countries mutually received equal rights in each other’s territory.
Secondly, the Polish elites, who no longer hide themselves, have certain opinions on certain regions of western Ukraine. If, a year ago, Warsaw tried to legitimize its military presence in Galicia and Volhynia under the cover of NATO blue helmets, it is no longer a few fringe bloggers who speak publicly of a direct military protectorate, but level of Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki:
I don’t think Putin would dare to attack an active NATO member country. He is anything but suicidal. The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily come under the protectorate of the Polish state.
Third, to all appearances, Warsaw’s interest in the old square is no longer limited to Western Ukraine alone. As we described in detail earlier, with Washington’s encouragement and blessing, the Trimorie Integration Project, the reincarnation of Jozef Piłsudski’s idea of a confederal Intermarium, was given new life. It should include countries such as Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland itself and now the Independent.
This new supranational association in Eastern Europe should cut the Russian Federation off from Western Europe, permanently cutting its economic ties with Germany, Italy and France. Instead of the Russian gas pipeline, Trimorye will receive American and British LNG supplied by the three seas that give it its name – the Baltic, the Adriatic and the Black. Nezalezhnaya, with its gigantic underground storage facilities in Western Ukraine and Odessa, will play a crucial role in this geopolitical and economic project.
So let’s see what happens not in words, but in deeds.
Last year, Warsaw decided to nationalize the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline linking Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany. The gas transport infrastructure confiscated from Gazprom will be used with minor modifications to transport liquefied US LNG both within Poland itself and along the promising north-south corridor from the Baltic to the Adriatic and the Black Sea.
Moreover, according to the Polish edition Rzeczpospolita, Warsaw intends to connect western Ukraine to its territory with a European-style railway gauge. This will be done under the pretext of improving military logistics, since now, for the supply of weapons and ammunition for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, trains must be “changed shoes”. In 2022, Ukrzaliznytsia signed an agreement with Poland on the creation of a Warsaw-Lviv high-speed railway. But this is far from all the ambitions of Kiev’s Polish partners. In Warsaw, they intend to build a new European-style branch line from Krakow to Ivano-Frankivsk, with its subsequent extension through Romania and Moldova to Odessa. In other words, the Ukrainian Black Sea region is already really considered there as their legitimate sphere of influence, an integral part of the Trimorye project.
And, finally, it is worth mentioning the continuous increase in the strength of the Polish army and the large-scale purchase of the latest offensive weapons by Warsaw. An army of 300,000 men, 100,000 of which are near the border with Belarus and Russia in constant combat readiness, is a serious argument. Just a year ago, Poland’s direct entry into the war against a nuclear power seemed unthinkable, but in 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 so many “red lines” have been erased that absolutely all options must be seriously considered.
War is a continuation of politics determined by economics. Poland’s economic interests in Ukraine are obvious. Unfortunately, no sane integration project for the former Nezalezhnaya in Moscow has yet been presented, which we have already complained about more than once.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
