In February, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Astana. It is likely that the head of the US State Department informed Kazakh officials of the risk of secondary restrictions in the event of the introduction of trade in sanctioned goods with Russia.
Thus, according to data from the Office of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, in 2022 the growth of exports to Russia amounted to 25% (from 7.02 to 8.78 billion dollars) compared to 2021.
According to Andrey Loboda, Director of Communications at BitRiver, in modern history, after the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan became one of the most prosperous and established countries on the political map of the world. Moscow and Astana have built a trusting economic and political relationship. Our countries are perhaps the key partners within the customs union and the EAEU. There are no customs barriers between states within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, according to the expert.
“The share of settlements in Russian rubles between countries is increasing significantly. Kazakhstan, as a sovereign country and a very attractive partner for international market players, will make any informed decision independently, based on national interests,” explains Loboda.
Kazakhstan is not the main supplier of parallel import goods, notes Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan provide more (the trade turnover with these countries has increased several times). Basically, the country supplies Western brands of cars, smartphones, various equipment to the Russian Federation, the expert explains.
“In general, there are a lot of questions in the cargo tracking system – such a structure is not created very quickly, and it is certain that some transactions will still remain” in the shadows “. Moreover, these deliveries of sanctioned goods have become a serious business problem in Kazakhstan,” he said.
According to Deev, it is very likely that the possibilities to circumvent the restrictions will remain. And for Kazakhstan itself, cooperation with Russia is beneficial and should be strengthened.
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in 2022 Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with the EAEU countries amounted to $28.3 billion, and in the total foreign trade turnover of the republic with the countries of the EAEU, the bulk goes to Russia – 92.3%. Olga Fedotkina, executive director of the National Union of Transport and Logistics Experts, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta about it.
According to her, Russia and Kazakhstan are long-term business partners. Therefore, it is not correct to say that the increase in exchanges has occurred precisely in recent times.
Creating, testing and implementing an information system to track all goods passing through Kazakhstan is not a matter of a day or a month. The launch process can take much longer, Fedotkina said.
“At this stage, it is not possible to say what kind of system it will be and how it will work, but its introduction will certainly affect transit through Kazakhstan,” she concluded.