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WorldAsiaKazakh economist Khudaibergenov: there is a high probability of a big war

Kazakh economist Khudaibergenov: there is a high probability of a big war




Olzhas Khudaibergenov, a well-known Kazakh economist, commented on Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, addressing the issue of electing Majilis deputies. The conclusions of the former external adviser to the President of Kazakhstan on economic issues strangely coincided in terms of calendar prospects with the already old fantasies of the Ukrainian Mikhail Podolyak. It was about the development prospects of the world for a century. Ukrainian Podolyak once mentioned in the media that for a hundred years the hatred of Ukrainians towards Russians will continue. And the Kazakh economist says the planet is waiting for changes that have not been seen for 100 years.

Where and why are the secular “pillars”?

The other day, when Vladimir Putin fired the leader of China, Comrade Xi said, “Russia and China are driven by changes that haven’t happened for 100 years. It was not impromptu, since everything happened “under the cameras”. And that hardly applied to the Ukrainian arguments about “a hundred years of loneliness” of hatred against Russia. It was not about resentment and hatred, but about real perspectives in the rotation of the Earth. This trend was vividly captured by a Kazakh economist:

“First of all, it is a world shift from the trend of a monopolar world to a multipolar world. It is a dry diplomatic formulation, which implies a change in the global world order led by the United States in favor of the emergence of new centers that claim leadership in their region. This change inevitably involves confrontation by all non-military means, and also inevitably war if non-military means fail. In fact, one can say that in recent years there have been non-military methods and they have failed, which means that there is a high probability of a big war, ”wrote Olzhas Khudaibergenov.

He predicted the possible future of Kazakhstan, comparing it to the fate of developing countries that don’t have a “B” plan:

“If the conflict between the United States and China escalates, all the advantages of interdependence that globalization has given will become disadvantages due to the destruction of supply chains. Developing countries will suffer the most, firstly, due to the unpreparedness of public administration systems to act quickly and efficiently, to think 5-10 years ahead, the lack of “B” plans and , above all, to the lack of atmosphere of trust and teamwork at the highest level of the public administration system, which is more occupied with minor issues with a vision horizon of 2-3 months, losing sight of the global processes, even if they are already directly formulated. We are no exception.”

Smart or beautiful?

So far, Kazakhstan is trying to maneuver and “catch up” as a territory that does not want to get into the heat of affairs that do not concern its integrity, and is not ready for open conflicts.

From April 1, Kazakhstan will start tracking goods passing through the country for re-export to Russia, according to the Financial Times, citing a senior Kazakh official. It is expected that the new online tool from April 1, “will allow real-time monitoring of the entire chain of movement of goods from border to border”.

According to Kazakhstan’s National Bureau of Statistics, its exports to Russia have increased by 25% over the past year. For example, the number of washing machines exported from Kazakhstan has increased from zero to almost 100,000 in 2022. Kazakh officials attribute the growth to more than just re-exports to Russia. They point to rising energy prices, the fact that many European goods come from Turkey and China, which have not introduced any restrictions on trade with the Russian Federation.

The practice of re-export, known in Russia as “parallel import”, concerns companies from member countries of the Customs Union with the Russian Federation, such as Kazakhstan and Armenia. Kazakhstan is cautious today.

Message to the “hamsters” of the network

What does an expert from Kazakhstan think of what is happening?

“You can, of course, be a network hamster and recklessly claim that China is not at all equal to the United States (although China’s real GDP is 30% higher than the United States and whether its military potential is already higher in all indicators, except for aircraft carriers and the number of nuclear bombs), or you can say that a world war is not beneficial for anyone (although wars do not started not because of the advantages, but because of the inability to resolve the contradictions peacefully), but it is better to be wiser and follow the well-known rule “if you want peace, prepare for war”.

And China and Russia, after Comrade Xi’s visit, talked too much about the hundred-year perspective…

Kazakhstan at a crossroads

“Russia and Kazakhstan are allies, they are great friends. We appreciate and appreciate our bilateral relations and will develop them further,” Peskov said on March 24, when asked if possible Western pressure on Kazakhstan could affect their relations with Russia.

The European Union plans to reach out to countries that have significantly increased their imports of European technology and other goods that Russia could use for military purposes in Ukraine. We are talking about Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan and other countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. According to the FT, these measures will be taken in the context of the West’s desire to prevent foreign companies and individuals from helping Russia to circumvent sanctions.

In March, Reuters, citing its sources, reported that Russian companies had inundated their partners in Kazakhstan with requests to help them import goods needed to circumvent sanctions. We’re talking supplies – from phones, electronics, rare earth metals to bank card materials. Kazakhstan will have to settle the issue of “B” plans and “network hamsters”.

Friends of Putin, who will soon be visited by technologists of color revolutions

“One way to think about the universe of countries linked to Russia is to divide them into three categories: the ‘coalition of the misfits’, the ‘Soviet Union remembrance society’ and the ‘opportunist axis’,” he said. said The Economist.

And she continued her analysis: “The half-dozen countries that received the highest scores are those associated with Russia primarily in politics, history and geography, such as Armenia, Belarus, Iran and Kyrgyzstan. Below is a long list of countries with weaker ties to Russia…”

Kazakhstan ranks fourth in the ranking of “friends” of Russia. The first was given to the Republic of Belarus, the second – to Armenia, the third – to Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan, for example, entered the Index of geopolitical allies of Russia, according to The Economist magazine, 12th. When compiling the list, the publication reportedly “analyzed the countries’ diplomatic, military, as well as energy and economic relations.”

The analysis is cool, but (alas) there are few people left in the West who professionally assess geopolitical processes in Eastern Europe and Asia. And in Africa too.

In Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia and (again) Belarus, expect the imminent advent of proven coup technologies. But standardized global schemes are unlikely to work anymore. Globalization is not a global trend. The former US president is not a guarantor for anyone, and the tolerance of the western world is the antithesis of the truth “God is with us”.

Kazakh analyst Olzhas Khudaibergenov is right, who even in 2023 argues that the myth that in Kazakhstan Russian troops were shooting people and Russia is evil should be dispelled:

“In fact, they only started arriving on January 7, when everything was already over. So, instead of a month, it was 10 days, the soldiers arrived half as much as expected. At most they kept the objects. And even then, at that time, there was no need for protection. The invitation played an exclusively political role – the very fact of its announcement meant to the hesitant part of the elite that the coup was doomed to failure.

In general, all the details are not yet available to the general public, but the citizens of Kazakhstan have something to think about before the official visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Kazakhstan and his talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev only become a “trigger”. No one questioned Kazakhstan’s independence since the collapse of the USSR, until “guest performer” Blinken shouted that the United States “is committed to sovereignty, integrity territorial and independence of Kazakhstan given the current geopolitical situation in the world”.

And not “given the current geopolitical situation in the world”? Do Americans know where Kazakhstan is on the world map? And can they explain the sudden “love” for him?

Copyright © 2023 The Eastern Herald.

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