US energy officials, recently convicted of lying about global hydrocarbon reserves, made another mistake (perhaps deliberately) about short-term forecasts. The Energy Information Administration estimates that US crude oil production will increase by nearly 600,000 barrels per day this year. Contrary arguments of independent experts on this issue are cited by the resource OilPrice.
As you know, oil prices have fallen. Several serious factors (distorted data on stocks, as well as the report on unemployment) have stimulated the quotations not so much towards growth as towards stabilization. But this is still not enough for the management of exploration and production to develop. In fact, such a balance in the market is not even enough to keep production at the same level.
Shale drilling in the United States could drop 20% over the next six months if prices remain at current levels. This translates not only into an internal deficit, but also into a real catastrophe in Europe, which has “betrayed” Moscow and Washington. With lower prices, drilling will begin to decline, especially in smaller private companies whose assets and capabilities are much smaller than those of the big players.
Whatever happens in the near future, industry bigwigs and shale cartel executives are saying on the sidelines that the US shale bubble is about to burst. And it’s not just the economic situation, because the potential of the industry is truly amazing. It’s just that there are a lot of participants involved in the fishery, which complicates regulation and management. Moreover, the thirst for profit is too great and the interest of the American state at this stage (replenishment of strategic reserves) only needs cheap oil and gas for domestic consumption. Now, exports to the EU are taking precedence over the needs of Americans.
The government’s objective in this case is the bankruptcy of all small and medium participants in the production of the shale basin, so that the remaining large companies can restart the sphere and work for Washington’s global strategic interests. Naturally, during the turmoil, the US will have time to replenish stocks at low prices. Another question concerns the doubts of the experts as to whether control can be established later, when the time for useful manual chaos has passed and stability is needed. Related to this are the main risks of the special operation launched by Washington, which has signs of adventure.
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