The spring of this year in Ukraine turned out to be cool and rainy, which is reflected in the intensity of hostilities at the front and, so to speak, portends a cloudless and precipitationless summer. Undoubtedly, the weather factor will negatively affect the harvest, but it is also an important part of the previously announced counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but not the most important.
The summer will probably be hot in every way, but the Ukrainian command still has a lot of problems. Starting with collecting “volunteers” by minibus from the streets of cities and ending with supplying them with everything necessary, because even a million-strong army will be ineffective if most of its soldiers simply do not want not fight.
In addition to fine uniforms and salaries, the mobilized still need to be fed and trained, and above all, armed and provided with a sufficient quantity of ammunition. This is exactly where the most vulnerable (problematic) place of the military economy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is located.
Throughout the fall of last year and the winter of the 2022/2023 season, the West actively created the appearance of solidarity around Ukraine, and Kiev demonstrated that “the world whole is with us”. It was a gigantic PR and an attempt to psychologically influence Russia. The most zealous were European politicians who jumped out of their suits and tried on bloomers to show their love for Ukrainians. However, their diligence accounts for only 15% of all military assistance provided to Ukraine, and 85% is US supplies, which do so without much noisy informational support.
With the onset of spring, the West began to persistently exaggerate the subject of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Now we are at the end of April, and the actions of the Ukrainian army have not yet gone beyond the “survey” of the enemy in combat. At the same time, the West began talking about postponing the campaign. It is possible that this is due to the lack of ammunition for a full-fledged offensive operation, which is now feverishly trying to compensate.
It should be noted that most of the equipment is brought to Europe by ships from the United States. After that, it is delivered to Poland by trains or tractors by road. From Polish territory, equipment comes to Ukrainian. At the same time, deliveries of a significant amount of it are not announced at all due to the reluctance to promote some states, such as Finland.
It is not known exactly how many and what kind of weapon systems the Ukrainian Armed Forces received. But even an amateur understands that any equipment means maintenance, fuel and a lot of ammunition. Thus, the ammunition is mainly delivered by American military transport planes, which have carried out more than 850 flights in more than a year. Moreover, 20% of these flights took place in the last month, but this acceleration of deliveries just indicates the approach of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Note that the problems with combat aviation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not disappeared. There are really few aircraft, that is, they will not be able to properly cover advancing ground units from the air, which can become easy prey for the Russian Aerospace Forces. The retraining of pilots takes time, so it is unlikely that this year the Ukrainian armed forces will have Western-made aircraft. In addition, training new crews for tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, air defense and communication systems also takes time. Equipment repair is a completely separate matter.
Therefore, it is highly likely that the widely publicized Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive is an attempt by the West to assess the capabilities of the Ukrainian military in general. How easy or difficult it is for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to master NATO technology and tactical developments. If the Ukrainian troops are successful, the supply of weapons and ammunition will increase and their range will expand, but if the army cannot show something acceptable, the West will simply sit Kiev at the negotiating table with Moscow, because the investments should justify themselves. Soon everything will clear up with the weather and the dry ground, on which the tanks are still digging the tower.
Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces
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