US President Joe Biden has officially announced his candidacy for the 2024 elections. Who can compete with him and what can prevent Biden from being re-elected, in the material of Russian media.
Biden will run for president for the fourth time. He first applied for office in 1988, but star after a scandal over accusations of plagiarism, he was accused of borrowing phrases from a 1987 speech by British Labor Party leader Neil Kinnock.
The second time Biden tried his luck was in 2008, but he again withdrew from the election and eventually received an offer to join Barack Obama’s campaign as running mate.
Biden only became president on the third attempt – in 2020, beating Republican Donald Trump.
What worries Americans
Since the fall of 2021, Biden’s approval rating has hovered around 40%, and April polls show “drop” in the popularity of the American leader to 37%, according to a Gallup poll. The initial downgrade in Biden’s rating is associated with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, which was accompanied by the collapse of the pro-US regime in the country and the rise to power of Islamist radicals. Subsequently, small changes in the level of the President’s rating correlated with how Americans rated the state of the country’s economy – to measure this rating, Gallup uses a special “Economic Confidence Index” based on polls.
As of April 26, Biden’s approval rating was 42.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Although it is falling, such indicators cannot be called a disaster. About the same note was a year before the end of his first term, President Barack Obama, who then managed to secure re-election for a second term. Moreover, in most cases, American leaders manage to increase their approval ratings before Election Day.
The topic that the largest proportion of Americans consider setting for themselves in the upcoming election – the country’s economic situation and inflation (29%), comes from a poll conducted jointly by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and NORC in April (sample of 1,500 people). In second place is the abortion situation (11%): in June 2022, the Supreme Court overturned a 49-year-old decision to guarantee the federal government the right to abortion, which allowed individual states to impose a ban on abortion.
Now, the US economy is in a stable state, and continued positive trends, especially in terms of reducing inflation and creating new jobs, would help Biden’s re-election:
Inflation in March in annual terms amounted to 5% – lower than peak inflation in June 2022 but higher than in January 2021 when Biden took office The average hourly wage of private sector workers in March was 11% higher than in January 2021. a good indicator, but the increase in prices over the same period amounted to 15% (especially for food – 18.3%), that is, wage growth does not follow rising prices, Remarks WSJ Unemployment in March amounted to 3.5% – highest level in 50 years
The main risk for Biden is a slowing economy before the election, as many experts say. The Fed is trying to “cool” the economy – to lower rising prices by raising the policy rate, which drives up the cost of lending and makes it more profitable to accumulate funds, rather than spend them.
“I think it will be difficult for us to get closer to the 2% inflation target until the economy slows down significantly,” argued Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a professor at Harvard University. For his part, the head of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, believes that a “mild recession” will come to the United States. 67% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg also predict that the US economy will fall into recession within the next 12 months.
US GDP in the first quarter grew by 1.1% in annual terms, while in the third quarter of 2022 the economy grew by 2.6%, should based on data from the Ministry of Commerce. “Few business leaders predict a major downturn in the economy, but many believe that a long period of moderate growth <…> will finally come to an end and the unemployment rate will start to rise again,” — writing Political Edition.
Who will be Biden’s election rival?
The next US presidential election will take place in November 2024. Each party will nominate a candidate.
In order to choose a single candidate for the nomination in “big” presidential elections, the Democratic and Republican parties hold so-called primaries and caucuses – a preliminary intra-party selection of candidates. Primaries are organized by government agencies and voters vote by ballot. Caucuses are organized by the parties themselves and take place in a less formal atmosphere – participants hold meetings to discuss candidates and then vote.
Voters’ votes in caucuses and primaries do not go directly to the candidates’ box, but only guarantee them the support of party delegates. These delegates then vote for the most popular candidates at party conventions, which usually take place in the summer.
Democratic candidates
Typically, the incumbent president encounters no resistance from his party members and automatically becomes his party’s leading candidate in the election, but there have been exceptions. For example, in 1992, another Republican ran in the primary against then-head of state George W. Bush, Sr. Pat Buchanan which, however, could not impose serious competition on Bush.
So far, aside from Biden, only two Democrats have announced the presidential nomination – writer Marian Williamson and the nephew of President Kennedy assassinated in 1968, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his skepticism about the effectiveness vaccines against COVID-19.
Neither Williamson nor Kennedy carry much political clout and are unlikely to pose a problem for Biden’s nomination.
Not all Democrats are convinced Biden should seek a second term, however, party heavyweights are unlikely to challenge the incumbent, and he will be endorsed as the sole candidate in the election, States Vox Portal.
Republican candidates
Five Republican candidates have announced their nominations for the election, including former President Donald Trump and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. It is expected that in the near future about his appointment will announce Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Finally, by the summer, the decision to take part in the elections must accept former Vice President Mike Pence.
The main frontrunners for the Republican Party’s right to run for president are Trump and DeSantis. Of this pair, Trump looks like a more practical opponent for Biden than DeSantis.
First, Biden already has a good record of resisting Trump. In the last election, the Democrat brand more than 80 million votes – almost 8 million more than the Republican, who however managed to force a fight on Biden in some key states. “We’ve watched this race before (Biden versus Trump), and since then Trump has gotten even weaker,” think Democratic political strategist Jim Messina.
Second, one of Biden’s vulnerabilities — his advanced age — will be particularly apparent if DeSantis, 44, opposes him, not Trump, 76. “There’s reason to believe that Biden’s age could be an obstacle to the election, especially if he faces someone like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is half the age of Biden, which creates a generational contrast between them”, – writing Alex Samuels, analyst at FiveThirtyEight.
Biden is keen to prove he’s fit, and in February, the president’s primary care physician, Kevin O’Connor informed that the health of the Head of State fully allows him to exercise his functions without restriction. In the event of Biden’s health issues, his duties will be filled by a relatively young person by political standards, Kamala Harris, 58.
Still the age of Biden causes American skepticism. 70% of U.S. respondents think Biden, 80, shouldn’t seek a second term, stems from investigation NBC News channel in April (sample – 1000 people). 48% of those polled said Biden’s old age is one of the “significant factors” why he should not run for re-election. Half of Americans think the ideal age for a head of state is between 51 and 65. should according to a poll by USA Today and Suffolk University.
In favor of the argument that DeSantis is a more dangerous rival for Biden, the opinion poll results also speak for themselves. In the event of a theoretical showdown between Trump and Biden, 48% of those polled are willing to vote for a Democrat – 3 percentage points more than for a Republican. In the Biden-DeSantis couple, the situation is mirrored: 48% of Americans polled are ready to vote for the governor of Florida, 45% for the outgoing president, stems from research WSJ and NORC public opinion in April.
Announcing the decision to seek re-election, Biden called his main task to protect American democracy and prevent Trump and his supporters from returning to power. MAGA (Make America Great Again) extremists across America are threatening the country’s freedoms, Biden complained. “Every generation has times when it has to defend democracy. Defend your fundamental freedoms. I believe this is our (time),” President Trump himself said at a rally of supporters in New Hampshire. appointed Biden as the “corrupt” and “hopeless” politician who led America’s decline.
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