The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of the main US economic indicators, is down for the 13th consecutive month. Its chart hit its lowest since September 2020, showing the longest negative trend since 2009.
At the same time, the intensity of the LEI decline increases. Thus, over the past 6 months, the index has fallen by 4.4%, while over the previous similar period, the LEI has fallen by 3.8%.
Now this indicator has fallen by 8.7%. At the same time, from 1960 to 2020, a 5% decrease in the LEI from the local maximum indicated the start of a recession, which was later confirmed. On average, the corresponding negative processes in the US economy began to occur 10.6 months after the LEI peak.
In addition, the cross charts of the LEI and the current CIS Economic Activity Index indicate a recession – this pattern has been drawn since the 1980s. The probability of a recession is increased by the fact that the intersection of the charts of these indicators occurred at the beginning of this year.
At the same time, emerging macroeconomic information shows positive data. However, consumer activity, public opinion polls, financial indicators and order volumes indicate the proximity of a recession. According to expert forecasts, from June to August, US macroeconomic data could deteriorate sharply.
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