Armenia is ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, provided that the security of the Armenian population is ensured, declared Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a press conference. How close Armenia and Azerbaijan are to a peaceful settlement of the conflict and why Yerevan must make concessions to Baku, in the material of Russian media.
What was Pashinyan talking about
On the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh
On Monday May 22, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that he was ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. As a condition for such a move, Pashinyan called for ensuring the safety of the Armenian population living in the disputed territories.
Earlier, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh will have to accept Azerbaijani citizenship or leave the territory.
The fact that Armenia is ready to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan within the framework of the Azerbaijani SSR, that is, taking into account its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan declared back in mid-April.
On Armenia’s membership in the CSTO
Pashinyan also said that Armenia could withdraw from the CSTO if it considers it an “incompetent organization”. “If Armenia decides de jure to withdraw from the CSTO, this will happen after Armenia registers that the CSTO has left Armenia. Such a program exists if the CSTO becomes an inactive organization. Then we will have to solve our own security problems,” he said.
Responding to the question of how the decision to leave the CSTO could affect Armenia’s relations with Russia, Pashinyan admitted that he asks this question himself. “Recently, a sociological survey was conducted and we find that trust in Russia among Armenian citizens is declining. Speaking of relations between countries, is it (are we talking about) only the interpersonal relations of leaders? — noted first.
Alexander Miridonov / Kommersant
Russia has become a mediator in the negotiations to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Second Karabakh War (September-November 2020). In accordance with the statement of the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, after the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, a Russian peacekeeping contingent in the amount of 1960 military personnel with weapons was deployed along the line of contact. They are engaged in monitoring compliance with the ceasefire regime, demining objects and areas and escorting columns of the armed forces. The mandate of the peacekeepers expires in 2025.
What do Pashinyan’s statements mean?
Armenia’s prime minister has previously spoken of his willingness to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the disputed territories, but for the first time called for securing the autonomous status of Armenians in such a scenario, Stanislav Prichin, a researcher at the Center for post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS, head of the Eurasian Development Center of Expertise, told Russian media.
After Armenia’s loss in the Second Karabakh War, the situation is developing in such a way that Yerevan fails to strengthen its position even by seeking support from Western players, says Prichin. “The deployment of the European observation mission did not have a positive impact on Armenia’s security – clashes took place and still take place. So, there is a forced need to negotiate,” he says.
For Armenia, negotiating in the event of an Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, among other things, means an agreement with the clauses of the tripartite agreement, which was signed with the mediation of Vladimir Putin in November 2020, recalls Prichin. “This, of course, puts pressure on Pashinyan inside the country, because there is always the Karabakh factor, the diaspora factor, which is not satisfied with such a development of events and forces Pashinyan to disagree, but his room for maneuver is very limited – there is practically no possibility of disagreeing, “- believes the expert.
The only alternative for the Armenian authorities is further aggravation, including with possible local military clashes, Pritchin added.
According tripartite agreement , under the control of Azerbaijan to return all the territories it lost as a result of the first Karabakh war (1992-94). Scroll understand includes both the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh and the former border regions of Azerbaijan. The city of Shushi will also come under the control of Baku. Communication between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh should be unblocked, and the connection between Karabakh and Armenia will be provided through the 5 km wide Lachin corridor.
As for the CSTO, Pashinyan’s statements leave many questions and look like an element of political bargaining, notes Pritchin. “Armenia seriously says that it is ready to leave the CSTO if Russia no longer supports Yerevan in the negotiations, although Russia itself is trying to take an objective position,” the analyst said. “There is a trilateral agreement, it is a road map to resolve the conflict, and if you do not respect it, we, as mediators, will not tolerate your failure to fulfill your obligations. This line from Moscow ultimately obliges the ‘Armenia to look for supports elsewhere, to the detriment of other formats – in Washington, in Brussels, but they are not effective either, because the situation on the ground is not in favor of Armenia, “explains Pritchin “So it turns out that now, of all the options, there remains an attempt to negotiate around the CSTO,” he summarizes.
Alexander Miridonov / Kommersant
If Armenia nevertheless withdraws from the CSTO, this will first undermine the security of Armenia itself, and the organization itself will not suffer, Pritchin believes. “Another question concerns Russian-Armenian relations: here, with the departure of Russia as the guarantor of Armenia’s security, the situation will become deplorable, because there will be a connection with the economic preferences that Armenia,” he said.
Besides Russia and Armenia, the CSTO also includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Belarus.
The history of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
In 1988, Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded the transfer of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO), which was administratively part of Soviet Azerbaijan, to Armenia. The collapse of the Soviet Union sparked a military conflict between independent Armenia and Azerbaijan, and in 1991 Artsakh (as Karabakh is called in Armenia) declared independence from Azerbaijan.
Following the results of the First Armenian-Azerbaijani War in 1992-1994, Artsakh was able to confirm its de facto independence, under its control in part or in full as well have crossed and parts of Azerbaijan adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh.
The second Karabakh war started in September 2020 and ended on November 10 – after a joint agreement statements Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia on a ceasefire. The second military confrontation ended with the terms of concessions from the Armenian side.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have not yet signed a peace treaty, and there are regular clashes between them, and the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has not been officially recognized by any member country of the UN, including Armenia.
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