In his commentary to Sky News Arabia, political analyst specializing in African affairs, Muhammad Mbadi Gabakti, does not rule out that the influence of these groups will grow to engulf large areas of Africa if they do not there is no “urgent” counter-move. .
latest attacks
• The group calling itself “Victory of Islam and Muslims” affiliated with the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda announced on May 23 an attack on a customs post in Bafarala, Kayi State in Mali , which led to the death of a Malian army soldier, the control of the Bafarala military point, and the seizure of weapons and equipment. .
• On May 15, the group announced that the “Masina” battalion, affiliated to it, had besieged Goringo in the Malian state of Mopti, in an audio speech by the group’s leader, Mahmoud Bari Qazi, as punishment for the inhabitants for their cooperation with the army.
• In neighboring Burkina Faso, “Al-Nusra” carried out two attacks against the army on May 16 and 17, in Bangura Nungafiri, during which 10 soldiers were killed.
• As for the Islamic State, it seized the financial city of Tedermen at the end of April, isolating Menaka, which was almost under the control of “Al-Nusra”.
These escalating attacks, and the vast area of ​​land in the hands of the two organizations, have caused global concern, prompting UN Under-Secretary-General for Africa Martha Bobby to warn at a Council meeting May 16 that the devastating effects of the terrorist attacks in the Sahel will extend beyond Africa, calling for broader international and regional cooperation to combat it.
“The Future of the Caliphate”
The political analyst, Muhammad Mbadi Gabakti, attributes the choice of the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda to Africa to the fragility of the security situation in many of its countries, in particular after the withdrawal of the French army from the Mali, and the lack of necessary coordination between the countries of the Sahelian group to control the borders. This made it the most suitable place for the establishment of the “caliphate state”.
Gabakti refers to the traditional objective for which terrorist groups claim to have been created, which is to “establish a caliphate” over a large part of the country, and after the failure of this objective in Syria and Iraq, many terrorists turned to Africa.
The solution, according to Gabakti, is to hold an urgent meeting of the “G5” group and the African Union, with international support, to coordinate and strike the terrorists, after Mali and Burkina Faso “failed” to attack them. deter.
Map of conflicts and influences
Previously, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (based in Washington) and the ACLED Armed Conflict Sites Data Group have monitored indicators of the influence of terrorist groups in the Sahel, stating:
• The “Victory of Islam and Muslims” and “ISIS” organizations compete with each other to establish the “Caliphate State”, and the first organization is the most widespread.
• The dispute raged after the French withdrawal from Mali and French planes whose strikes were hampering the development of terrorist operations came to a halt.
• The map of attacks extended from Mali and Burkina Faso to the borders of Niger and Chad, and some advanced to the borders of Togo, Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania.
• Attacks have quadrupled since 2019, and out of 135 administrative regions in Mali, Burkina Faso and western Niger, 84 were attacked in 2022.
• In 2022, Burkina Faso ranked first in West Africa in the Terrorism Index, and second in the world, followed by Mali in second and fourth in the world, then Niger in third place in the region and tenth in the world.
• “Al-Nusra” expanded its recruitment operations in Azawad, northern Mali, and extended its control for the first time to the southern regions, after thousands of people from these areas joined the organization “Masina”.
• “Al-Nusra” has appointed emirs for the regions of Timbuktu in northern Mali, which signifies the beginning of the emergence of the characteristics of its “caliphate state”.
• ISIS has recorded activities in Algeria, Benin and Nigeria, with efforts to establish a coordination center with terrorists in Libya, encouraged by an expansion plan to establish its projected caliphate.
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