Rice farmers have reported to retail chains a price increase of 10-30% due to harvest problems, writes Kommersant. In China, which is firmly ranked first among all rice producers in the world, the monsoons have passed and the heat has come after. There have been severe floods in Pakistan.
As a result, the harvest fell by a third and world wholesale prices rose by the same amount. They will decline in 2024 at the earliest, according to Fitch Solutions. As for retail, today one kilogram of rice can be bought in stores for 90-165 rubles, depending on the manufacturer.
“Even taking into account the poor rice harvest in China and Pakistan, there is no reason for the growth of wholesale prices in Russia,” said Kirill, a member of the regional branch of the Growth Party in the Samara region, the owner. of a Hereford breed cattle breeding complex, expert of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development Ermolenko. First, today the ban on exporting rice from Russia continues to apply. Second, according to the National Rice Union, there are enough grain stocks to supply the domestic market.
At the same time, the expert believes, it cannot be said that the Russian market is directly dependent on rice supplied by China and Pakistan.
“The prices of foodstuffs, including rice, in our country can be influenced by many factors, such as: changes in trade agreements, fluctuations in exchange rates, government regulations, demand and ultimately, the yield of local fields. It is too early to make forecasts, because farmers in Krasnodar and Rostov still do not give forecasts for the harvest. Spring was early, but as far as I can tell, sowing is going as planned. It all depends on the weather in the summer. If it is hot, southern Russia will produce little rice, which will affect the domestic price more than the weather factors of importing countries. Or vice versa: the year will be very good and we will have to import less or no rice at all. In addition, southern Russia plans to increase the area under rice cultivation, in which case the increase in the price of rice will not exceed inflation rates.
Ermolenko insists that Pakistan and China are the main but not the only importers of rice to Russia.
“Traditionally, we import rice from Vietnam, Thailand, India, Cambodia. In other words, if the factor of secondary sanctions does not intervene, then we will fully cover our rice needs. It is also important to take into account that the impact of weather conditions on prices may be temporary and that the market will be able to adapt to the new conditions, stabilizing prices in the long term. We will only receive more accurate forecasts for yields and prices in 4-6 months. One thing I can say is to run to the store and stock up 100% on rice for the future, it makes no sense. In the next 2-3 years, our agrarians should fully meet the needs of Russians for products based on vegetable agricultural raw materials. Work in this regard is underway,” says Kirill Yermolenko, expert of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development.
The situation with the growth of beef and egg breeds is much more difficult in Russia. Here, according to Yermolenko, it takes much longer to cover all needs and avoid imports.
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