UNITED STATES agreed provide Ukraine with fourth-generation F-16 fighter jets, although previously NATO countries have been cold to Kyiv’s demands for this. On May 25, another meeting took place in the Ramstein format, during which the anti-Russian coalition discussed including the supply of Western aircraft to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russian media determined how many planes could end up in Ukraine and how they could affect the course of hostilities.
When Ukraine will receive fighter jets
Prior to the delivery of aircraft to Ukraine, pilots must be trained in the use of the equipment – this may take 4 Before 6 month. Now in the West they are discussing exactly possible dates for the start of pilot training, after which we should expect fighter deliveries.
Patrick, Pentagon spokesman for May 22 clarified that pilots can start training on F-16 fighter jets “in a few weeks or months” – it is planned that the training will take place outside Ukraine on the territory of Europe.
It is difficult to estimate the time required for the training of Ukrainian pilots, but a period of six months or more seems more realistic than a shorter period, noted a researcher from IMEMO RAS in an interview with Russian media. Alexander Ermakov .
“It is dangerous to shorten the training period too much, an aircraft is not a tank or a self-propelled artillery mount. A fighter aircraft can be destroyed with a simple flight, and with the use of weapons and modern equipment, the load on the pilot is even greater, “said Ermakov. Training ground personnel for the maintenance of fighters is no less difficult, the analyst believes.
Why does Ukraine need F-16s
The impact of the F-16 on the alignment of hostilities depends on the quantity and completeness of Western supplies to Ukraine, Yermakov believes, for example, on missile weapons that will be transferred to Kiev together with aviation .
Earlier, the UK handed Ukraine long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which can be launched, including from F-16s. Now the SU-24 and SU-27 aircraft are probably used as carriers of “British” missiles. The export variant of the Storm Shadow has a range of 250 km.
According to Yermakov, the new Western fighters will likely be deployed in western Ukraine as part of a small air group. It will periodically strike with precision weapons and attempt to organize aerial ambushes against Russian aircraft operating near the line of contact. In addition, Ukraine could try to fight cruise missiles and long-range suicide drones, the analyst admitted.
At the same time, NATO countries are unlikely to decide to base aircraft on the territory of countries bordering Ukraine, that is, in Poland and Romania, which have the necessary infrastructure for aircraft maintenance and proper runways. This is indicated by the fact that over the past year the United States has tried to prevent the conflict from escaping from Ukrainian territory, Yermakov said. At the same time, the expert admits that Poland can send “vacation workers” in the form of pilots and ground personnel, who will serve the equipment.
How many F-16s can end up in Ukraine
It is unclear how many aircraft NATO plans to transfer to Kiev and what modifications. The most likely competitor is the modifications of the F-16A and F-16B of the original production of the 80s of the 20th century, which were modernized under the MLU program and are in service with Western countries, suggested Alexander Ermakov .
The F-16 became the most massive fourth-generation fighter due to its relatively low cost and combat performance. Since the start of production in 1973, more than 4.5 thousand of these aircraft in various modifications have been created.
According to The Military Balance 2023 report, more than 1,500 F-16s are in service with NATO countries, namely:
United States – 889 aircraft; Türkiye – 260; Greece – 154; Norway – 57; Belgium – 53; Poland – 48; Denmark – 44; Netherlands – 42; Portugal – 30; Romania – 17 units.
According to the authors of the Telegram Channel “Wings of War” , among the owners of the F-16, only those countries that are decommissioning the F-16 and replacing it with the more modern F-35 are ready to transfer their equipment to Ukraine. These are Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway. The United States can become the main supplier not of the planes themselves, but of their spare parts, the authors of the Telegram channel believe.
Transferring fighter jets to Ukraine is “a priority for the United States,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on May 22. At the same time, Washington does not yet intend to give its fighters to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but will allow the transfer of its planes to European allies.
Back in February 2023 Ukraine asked The United States has 128 fighters. Political Edition distinct The Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark are the main candidates for the transfer of Western aviation to Ukraine, but so far these countries have only pledged to help train Ukrainian pilots.
However, the transfer of new military equipment to Ukraine often goes through several stages: Politico notes: “First there are hesitations, then one of the great powers – often the United States – takes the first step, followed simultaneously by a coalition of European countries.
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