Before the current crisis, cultivated green spaces covered more than a quarter of the total area of the Kingdom, an area of particular importance in the Moroccan economy, as it constitutes around 14 percent of the gross national product, and also provides a stable income for about 40 percent of the Kingdom’s population.
huge crisis
Mohamed Jedry, a Moroccan expert and economic analyst, explains that food security in Morocco faces great challenges linked to the crises in the agricultural sector, which he described as having generalized and continuous dimensions in recent years, including: high global inflation rates, and recurring dry seasons, which did not pass the country for several decades.
And he added, in statements to “Sky News Arabia Economy”, that lessons should be learned from the past period, so that the agricultural sector continues its important economic role in providing foreign currency to the country, in addition to opportunities for employment that are available as a result of increased expansions, while meeting the goals of self-sufficiency in basic products such as: red and white meat, eggs, vegetables and fruits.
Jedry believes that it has become very difficult to achieve these goals, without specific steps and procedures that keep pace with the ongoing changes in the global economy, which he summarizes as follows:
● Increase cultivated areas, especially with crops consumed locally, such as cereals, corn, barley, pulses, oilseeds, sugar cane and beets.
● Continue efforts to address the drought and water scarcity crisis, through investments in connecting watersheds, desalinating seawater, creating sewage treatment plants and continuing to the construction of small and medium dams.
● Encourage feed and fertilizer industries; Because it helps red and white meat producers control feed and fertilizer prices.
● continue to invest in the renewable energy sector such as wind and solar; Due to the low cost of production for farmers, unlike last year; The Kingdom of Morocco’s energy bill has historically reached record levels, exceeding $15 billion.
● Create a balance between crops for export and those for the local market.
According to data from the Moroccan Exchange Office – the government agency in charge of statistics – Morocco imported nearly 50 million tonnes of cereals last year, up 23.2% year-on-year.
effects of inflation
A recent report by Fitch Ratings indicates that Morocco’s rating depends on weak development and governance indicators, high public debt, as well as volatility in agricultural production.
The report adds that Morocco’s economic recovery faces headwinds, as economic growth slowed in 2022 to 1.2%, after registering 7.9% in 2021, and agricultural production fell by 15%; due to severe drought.
And the agency expected a recovery in GDP growth in 2023 to 3%, supported by an improvement in agricultural production, while the performance of the sector itself is still mainly dependent on weather conditions.
Weak domestic production and high prices for raw materials used in the agricultural sector have pushed inflation to unprecedented levels in recent months.
At the end of last February, for example, inflation reached 10.1%, due to a rise in food prices of more than 20%.
Government action
In this regard, the Moroccan government has tried to mitigate the effects of rising food and energy prices on families, especially after inflation affected the prices of vegetables and fruits, in which Morocco achieves self-sufficiency. included:
• Provide general support for basic foodstuffs.
• Reduce the rise in commodity prices.
• Exemption from taxes on fertilizer products.
• Abolition of value added tax on agricultural products; To reduce farmers’ expenses.
• limit exports of certain basic products; To ensure their availability on the market, such as tomatoes, the price of which has increased during the month of Ramadan.
According to a World Bank report published last February, this required the mobilization of additional public expenditure amounting to around 2% of GDP.
Despite these measures, families with modest living conditions, and those most in need, are still suffering from the effects of rising food and other prices due to inflation.
According to World Bank calculations, the annual inflation rate was almost a third higher for the poorest 10% of the population, compared to the richest 10%, mainly due to the effects of the rise food prices, which monopolize a large share of the expenditure of the poorest households.
The report predicts that economic growth in Morocco will accelerate to 3.1% in 2023, driven by key sectors.
However, the risks of negative developments remain due to geopolitical tensions, in particular the war in Ukraine, the slowdown in the activities of Morocco’s main trading partners in Europe and potential climatic shocks.
weather changes
For his part, Idris Al-Issawi, a Moroccan economic analyst, said in statements to “Sky News Arabia Economy”, that the country had drawn up plans at an earlier time; To cope with possible climatic fluctuations, such as drought, in order to maintain food security, these plans included: the construction of dams and the use of available water for agriculture.
Al-Issawi explains that despite this, agriculture in Morocco is still mainly dependent on rain, so it is always linked to climatic conditions and their stability, which affects the cultivation of cereals, which was not enough to cover the needs of the country.
Morocco needs about 10 million tons of grain per year, and according to statistics from the Moroccan Exchange Office, the country imported soft wheat last year, worth 25 billion dirhams (2 .4 billion), an increase of 81% compared to 2021.
Al-Issawi pointed out that Morocco’s entry into the club of clean solar energy producing countries over the past decade, with the opening of “Nour 1” and “Nour 2” stations in the Moroccan eastern desert, helps to reduce energy costs which the country needs. Maintain food security in various ways.
He added that investment in the agricultural sector requires large funds and advanced technology, and that Morocco must pay more attention to it in the coming periods.
Other water sources
Moroccan economist Dr Hisham Benfdoul says Morocco is currently moving to address the impact of drought on food security, through existing dams which already have a large capacity, and provide 20 billion m cubes suitable for irrigation or consumption.
He added that the Moroccan government intends to support the agricultural sector through the construction of seawater desalination plants, in order to provide 150 million cubic meters to face the risks of recurrent droughts, which the country is experiencing at its peak. in the current period.
Bendoul indicates that since 2008, the government has launched a program that extends until 2020, called the “Green Morocco” plan, with the aim of developing production, making the sector a main driver of the social and economic development of the country, and preserve natural resources.
Statements by Moroccan Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch to parliament earlier this month revealed the plan’s contribution to fully exploiting Morocco’s agricultural potential, doubling gross domestic product and tripling exports, while being able to create more than 50 million additional working days.
He pointed out that there is a new regime; Complementing the first plan, which runs from 2021 to 2030, it aims to develop crops that require little irrigation water, such as carob trees, almond trees, olive trees and cacti.
According to Reuters, in the past two months, Morocco has imported about 20,000 head of cattle from Brazil. To fill the shortage of meat and reduce its prices on the local market, after the country was affected by the repercussions of the drought crisis.
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