While analysts and politicians believe the move will bring Kılıçdaroğlu the votes of refugee-disrupted voters, others expect it to backfire, stripping votes from Kurds and those labeled as ” moderates” who admired his speech on freedoms and citizenship in the first round.
Despite the weakness of the Victory Party electoral bloc, the opposition candidate needs it to boost the vote in his favor from 44.88% to at least 50%, overtaking his rival, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who obtained 49.52% in the first round.
Ozdag Support
Claiming his support for the opposition leader, Ozdag said as he called on his supporters to vote for him: “I call on those who voted for us in the first round to vote for Mr Kilicdaroglu in the second round so that the refugees can to return. to their country.”
He added: “It is known that Turkey’s biggest problem is the 13 million refugees, and we cannot think about the welfare of the Turkish people while providing houses, money and support to the refugees. “.
endorsement agreement
The Nasr party leader backs the opposition candidate on the basis of an agreement which, according to Turkish reports, included:
Preserving the first four articles of the constitution (concerning that Turkey’s identity is an indivisible secular republic), the return of refugees within one year, the fight against all terrorist organizations, as well as the adoption of competence as the basis of employment, and the fight against corruption.
The paradox of the Kurdish position
One of the paradoxes of the second round is that the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party has decided to continue supporting Kemal Kilicdaroglu, despite its tendency towards nationalist parties which reject multiple identities, including the Kurdish one.
Party co-chairman Pervin Buldan attributed this to abstaining from voting which would help Erdogan survive, saying: “On May 28, we will complete the job that was not completed on May 14, ahead of those who are trying to ‘prevent change request.’
Hope is not enough
Turkish political analyst Javad Gök told Sky News Arabia that the Victory Party’s support has revived enthusiasm in the ranks of the Republican People’s Party, but “it’s not enough to win the second round”.
In Gok’s estimation: “Kilijdaroglu was to announce his government, who would run the country with him if he won, as that would have significantly increased his shares, but currently there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel.”
Regarding the position of the Kurds, he said: “They don’t have many options, because Erdogan’s victory will keep the situation as it is”, referring to complaints from the People’s Democratic Party that he was harassed during Erdogan’s rule, and there is a claim to ban it, and that Erdogan’s survival may mean the survival of party leaders in prisons.
Limited impact
Kılıçdaroğlu relied on the support of the Victory Party over the votes of those opposed to the presence of the refugees. However, Samir al-Araki, a journalist with Turkish television, considers the impact of the refugee issue in the second round as limited, based on:
In the first round, only 5% of the votes went to Sinan Ogan, and even in this percentage were details remote from the refugee file. Most of the states that voted for Kilicdaroglu do not experience a large refugee presence, especially in the western, southern and Aegean region, indicating that their residents do not feel much harm from refugees. We suspect that the opposition will keep its promises and that the refugee file is used for purely electoral purposes, otherwise, where was it in the first round? Where is the opposition’s plan to expel them?
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