Turkish analysts present these indicators, whether related to presidential or legislative elections, and monitor what voter voting trends mean, and the proportions of votes obtained by the “popular” coalition led by Erdogan.
The difficulties of the 2023 elections
For the first time, Erdogan ran in the second round of presidential elections, the results of which were very close to his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Turnout in the Justice and Development Party fell to 34.3% for the first time in the legislative elections that took place on May 14, down from 42.5% in the 2018 elections during which the party was forced to enter into an alliance for the first time with the National Movement Party to secure a parliamentary majority. Following the history of the party in the elections since 2002, we find that at that time it obtained an absolute majority obtaining 363 deputies out of 600 deputies, a rarity in Turkey, but after that the vote for it began to decline continuously, as follows: the 2002 elections won 363 deputies. The 2007 elections won 341 deputies. The 2011 elections won 326 deputies. The 2015 elections won 258 deputies. The 2018 elections won 295 deputies. The 2023 elections won 266 deputies. In the 2023 elections, for the first time, the main opposition parties will unite in a single alliance, the “Nation Alliance”, to stand for presidential and parliamentary elections. The above means that Erdogan will face, for the first time, a strong opposition backed by a supporter that reaches almost half of the population, and he will have to deal with this problem in the future.
Reasons for withdrawal
Turkish political analyst Hisham Gunay explains to Sky News Arabia what is behind the two-decade decline in voting for Erdogan and his party:
Existing alliances affected party voting. The economic crisis, which many attribute to the government, is like the party’s inability to control inflation and interest rates. The Justice and Development Party’s alliance with the National Movement Party led to its delinquency towards nationalist orientations, especially towards the Kurds. The alliance with the “Huda Bar” (Kurdish-Islamic) party has raised women’s concerns about women’s rights.
Find an alternative
Aydoğan Unal, professor of political science at Ege University, puts forward the reasons for the decline of the AKP, especially in the big cities.
These votes did not go to the opposition as a whole, but rather remained within the circle of the “People’s Party” coalition led by the Justice and Development Party, but went to the party’s allies in the legislative elections, to namely the National Movement and the New Welfare Party. Which means they are looking for an alternative.
An indication of this is the decline in the number of AKP deputies in Cankiri and Bolu, and in Sparta, until losing two deputies, with an increase in votes for its ally, the National Movement Party, in addition to the People’s Republican Party . .
big bend
This opinion is supported by Karim Oktim, professor of political science and international relations, stating: “Despite their continued loyalty to Erdogan, many AKP spectators believe that the party has started to deteriorate and are looking for alternatives” .
In turn, he points out that “some of the votes that did not vote for the Justice and Development Party turned into its allies, and as a result, the National Movement Party almost lost no votes , and the People’s Alliance won a majority, obtaining 49% in the general election.
According to him, although the People’s Alliance won a majority, there is a “major shift” as many voters have switched to other coalition parties, away from their traditional party.
Read the Latest World News Today on The Eastern Herald.
