Deliveries of Russian oil to the world market have fallen somewhat in recent weeks, but there is still no indication of the reality of the production cuts the Kremlin insists on. On this subject, with reference to the estimates of the supply of raw materials by sea and by pipeline, writes analyst BloombergJulian Lee. Russian media publishes the main theses of this material.
four-week average offshore exports of Russian oil were 3.64 million barrels per day (bpd) as of May 28, down for the first time in six weeks; to date, the figure still exceeds the level of the end of last year by 1.4 million b/d and by 270 thousand b/d the level of exports in February; Moscow explains these data by a drop in supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, which occurred in January-February, and since then pumping to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic has remained stable – around 240,000 bpd; the wariness of Russia’s OPEC+ allies of voluntary production cuts is justified, and the growth in the number of wells in production that has begun speaks in their favour; after a 2.6% reduction in the number of active wells in March, almost one in ten closed wells was restarted in April; refineries cut consumption to 5.24 million barrels per day in May, the lowest in a year, but in this case, we are talking about traditional maintenance, there is no sign of a decrease in supplies at the foreign.
In February, Russian authorities announced a cut in oil production of 500,000 barrels per day. This measure was then extended until July 2023 and then until 2023. This decision is explained by the fact that the world oil market “is going through a period of high volatility and unpredictability”, which is the result of ” the banking crisis in the United States and Europe, global economic uncertainty and unpredictable energy policy decisions”. ”
In addition, last year Moscow classified oil export data and, from March 2023, suspended the publication of oil and condensate production data. According to Rosstat, in February, 38.5 million tons of oil without gas condensate were produced (about 10.1 million b/d), which is 1.3% less than in February 2022 and 8.5% less than in January 2023.
Bloomberg regularly monitors Russian oil exports. In March, the agency writing that the volume of oil exports from Russia has not changed despite the decision to cut production. At that time, the country continued to supply oil abroad at a level of more than three million barrels per day.
Mid-April Bloomberg noted that the volume of oil that Russia exports through ports fell to 2.9 million b/d. By the end of the month, the agency, citing data on deliveries and the workload of oil refineries (refineries), reported that Russia is increasing its exports of crude oil and that the processing of this raw material exceeds the levels of 2022. According to experts interviewed by Bloomberg, the achievement of a new export maximum has been made possible thanks to the strong demand from China, India and Turkey.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) in March 2023 estimated Russian oil supply at 8.1 million barrels per day (this is the highest level since April 2020) and oil production at 9.58 million barrels per day (by 290 thousand barrels less than in February).
Oil production in Russia in April, by calculations The EIA was around 9.6 million bpd, unchanged from March and only down 270,000 bpd from February. Thus, according to the agency, Russia has not kept its promise to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day.
similar grade and S&P Global Platts. According to him, oil production in Russia in March fell by only 260,000 bpd, to 9.6 million barrels per day from 9.86 million barrels in February.
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