The agreement will expire next July 17, amid Russian threats to withdraw from it if its interests are not affected, just as Ukraine’s interests are being affected, as you see, while Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky responded on Friday that his country is ready to export grain through an “alternative plan” without Russia. .
A food security expert tells ‘Sky News Arabia’ what awaits the world if either side sticks to its current stance on the grain export deal.
For its part, the UN has warned of a new threat to world food security, if Moscow carries out its threat concerning the agreement signed last July between the international organization, Russia, Ukraine and the Turkey.
According to UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric, only 33 ships left Ukrainian ports in May, half the number compared to April. Total exports of cereals and other foodstuffs reached 1.3 million tons metrics last month, less than half the amount of the previous month.
Moscow has announced that it will limit the entry of ships to the port of “Bivdeni” until the sanctions imposed on it in the export of ammonia and in bank transfers are lifted.
Back to square zero
Dr. Nader Noureddine, professor of water and land at Cairo University and strategic expert at the General Assembly of the Food Organization of the United Nations (FAO), speaks to “Sky News Arabia” about the results expected from the Russian decision on food prices and the economy of poor countries.
Russian threats are sure to drive up wheat and corn prices for fodder, beans, soybeans and sunflowers, and could double, meaning rising inflation and stagnation. Food exports will take over the flow of dollars in poor countries. Because it will direct it towards the import of cereals, which is experiencing a significant rise in prices, which will bring things back to February 2022, when the war breaks out. This week, Russia launched missiles at the port of Odessa, which is Ukraine’s largest grain export port. The port of “Odessa” includes large ships with a capacity of 60,000 tons, and the port has achieved its goal of limiting Ukrainian grain exports, given Russian suspicions that the West was seeking to conclude this agreement to support the Ukrainian economy which relies heavily on these exports. Port targeting caused a major problem. So much so that Turkey announced a traffic jam of boats from Ukraine and Russia in the port of the Bosphorus. Of course, this means that there will be a grain shortage, especially since Russia and Ukraine export 34% of world grain exports.
Two Russian demands
Since the beginning of the negotiations on the grain export authorization, Russia has put forward its demands, which it complains that Washington and European countries ignore each time the agreement is renewed.
The most important of these are two requests, which Noureddine clarified to Sky News Arabia:
allow it to export fertilizers in exchange for allowing Ukraine to export wheat; Because Russia is the largest country in the world to export chemical fertilizers with 13%, and it is a Russian product that African countries need to moderate their prices. The second requirement is to restore the functioning of the “quick code” system in Russian banks, which the European Union and the United States interrupted as part of the sanctions they imposed on Moscow after the outbreak of the war. of Ukraine, so that it can obtain the royalties for its grain exports which it does not obtain because of the cessation of transfers to its banks.
The United Nations considers the decision to return the “Swift Code” to Russian banks as a European decision which has nothing to do with it, and it cannot force the Union to authorize the export of fertilizers from Russia.
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