And while Western reports warned of a drop in the morale of the Ukrainian army due to the loss of Bakhmut, the British newspaper “Express” presented Kiev’s options for launching attacks and possible locations for the first struck.
Despite this, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Saturday his country’s desire to launch an offensive to reclaim its lands, adding to the American Wall Street Journal: “We firmly believe that we will succeed”.
Kyiv hopes the attack will turn the tide of the war, which erupted with the Russian invasion of its lands 15 months ago.
West sent all the needs
According to White House spokesman John Kirby, Washington is confident it has met the needs of Kyiv’s counterattack, adding, according to a Friday press briefing:
We have met all of Ukraine’s needs for the offensive. It is up to the Ukrainians to determine the time of the attack. The United States and its allies have done a lot and are ready to do a lot more in the weeks and months to come.
What are the objectives of the counterattack?
According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, his country has a serious chance of achieving a breakthrough during the summer.
Regarding the targets of the attack, Reznikov clarified in an interview with the French newspaper Ouest France, saying:
Break the Russian will to win this war. Back to Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders in 1991, including Crimea.
Where is the possible first shot?
When it comes to Ukraine’s best options for its attack and where the potential first strike is, former British Army Colonel Stuart Crawford identified 3 possible options, according to the “Express” newspaper:
The Ukrainians would start south of the area around Zaporizhia towards Melitopol and then towards the northern shores of the Sea of ​​Azov. If successful, the land bridge between Russia and Crimea will be cut and Russian forces in southern Ukraine will be relocated. The Russians will then begin to turn west and regroup at Kherson, threatening Crimea. The Russians could be distracted and tricked into launching long-range attacks in central Donbass and around Bakhmut, and here they could be surrounded and the Ukrainians would regain some of their territory. It is possible that Ukrainian forces would take advantage of the latest incursion on the Russian border by turning left, hitting the Belgorod region and then south, where they would encircle the Russian “Magino Line” – as the Germans did with the Allies through the Ardennes in 1940 during World War II.
Bloodshed and demoralization
The Washington Post says that several obstacles await the counterattack, including the one that the Ukrainians themselves have provoked, because they will have to cross the rights of the mines they have laid and which are difficult to remove.
She added: “If this crossing is successful, they will be met by the impregnable Russian fortifications, designed to trap all units under Russian artillery fire, which may prevent the counterattack before it begins.”
He quoted Marc Cancian, a naval officer and defense expert, as saying, “If the Russian fortifications were successfully overrun, it would be a bloodbath very similar to World War I.”
As for the American National Review magazine, it says:
Low Ukrainian morale could disrupt the attack. There is a pessimistic mood in Ukraine caused by the loss of Bakhmut. The West forces Kyiv to attack, which puts Zelenskyy in a difficult position.
Ukrainian military expert Oleh Danilov responded to “Sky News Arabia” about Western reports that speak of low Ukrainian morale, saying:
The initiative is now in the hands of Ukraine. Moscow is facing the counter-attack and is burdened with major weaknesses: it is not the lack of arms and ammunition on the battle fronts, but rather the morale of its forces and the level of their training and professional performance. The good performance of the Ukrainians in the information war will contribute to the deterioration of the morale of the Russian forces. Morale is high to regain occupied lands, and the counterattack will reveal Russian military weaknesses.
As for the Russian military expert, Vladimir Igor, he says that Kyiv faces several obstacles:
Russian airstrikes removed senior military officials from their posts. Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed most Western armories and ammunition stores. Ukraine suffers from a shortage of professional military personnel. Russian defensive lines in Russian-controlled towns in eastern Ukraine prevent and break any wave of attack.
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