What is the strategic importance of the dam?
The dam is located on the Dnipro River, next to the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, and contains 18 million cubic meters of water. Its height is 30 meters and its length is 3.2 kilometers It was completed in 1956. The dam behind it formed a lake roughly similar in size to the Great Salt Lake in the US state of Utah , and it also supplies water to the Crimean peninsula. , which Russia annexed in 2014. The Kakhovka dam is considered Kherson’s main weak point, as its destruction would be a real disaster, just as blowing the dam would destroy the system of irrigation canals in the most of southern Ukraine, including Crimea (subjugated to the Russians). .
Was the dam targeted by direct shelling?
With the news breaking in the morning, the Russian and Ukrainian sides traded accusations over who was responsible for the accident, in a scene that missed the fact that the dam was shelled and directly targeted today, or that the collapse occurred as a result of the shelling that surrounded the dam during the period of the Ukrainian War. The Southern Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on Tuesday that Russian forces had blown up the Nova Kakhovka Dam, located in the Russian-controlled parts of the Kherson region. The command added on its Facebook page: “The extent of the destruction, the speed and amounts of water, and areas likely to be flooded are being determined.” While the TASS news agency quoted the Moscow-appointed mayor of Nova Kakhovka as saying the upper part of the dam had been destroyed as a result of the bombardment. A Russian official described the incident as a “terrorist attack”.
Mutual accusations over the destruction of the dam are not new today
Late last year, notably in October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of preparing to blow up the dam, which could lead to what he described at the time as a “widespread disaster”. . He added that if the Russians seriously considered blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it means they would realize that they would not only lose control of Kherson, but of the whole south, including Crimea. Russian military commander General Sergei Surovikin responded that Ukrainian forces may be planning “prohibited methods of warfare” in the city of Kherson and the hydroelectric dam. Many Russian commentators have indicated that areas under Russian control would be hardest hit if the Kakhovka Dam is destroyed, although dozens of communities under Ukrainian control will also be badly affected.
Does the accident increase the risk of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhia power plant?
Moreover, the information disseminated on this subject is contradictory, since the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms that there is no direct threat to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant after the explosion of the Nova Kakhovka dam. Ukraine has warned that the risk of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhia power plant is “increasing rapidly” after the dam exploded.
Will the collapse of the dam hamper Ukraine’s counterattack?
Although Ukraine did not reveal the time of its counterattack, its forces have concentrated their attacks in the past few hours on the axis south of Donetsk. Analyzes indicate that the options for the Ukrainian counterattack could start south of the area around Zaporizhia towards Melitopol and then towards the northern shores of the Sea of ​​Azov. If successful, the land bridge between Russia and Crimea will be cut and Russian forces in southern Ukraine will be moved, thus the Russians will begin to turn west and regroup in Kherson. In the absence of details on the upcoming Ukrainian plan, it may be difficult to predict the impact of today’s incident on the conduct of the military operation, but what is beyond doubt is is that the partial collapse of the strategic dam will have negative consequences and casualties that will add to the massive casualties of the war that continues to this day.
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