The successive cycles of escalation and counter-escalation announce a full-fledged confrontation, while the tests of intercontinental missiles are accompanied by heavy military maneuvers.
Will the end of the truce be the start of a broader conflict that will spare neither near nor far? What are the climbing scenarios like on the Korean Peninsula?
The answer is on the map
There is no doubt that any confrontation with North Korea will not be devoid of an intercontinental missile confrontation with the newly revealed qualitative weapons that form the pillars of Pyongyang’s deterrent force.
Proof of this is the Hwasong 17 missile, which North Korea successfully tested in April 2023, and which was launched from Pyongyang, rising to a maximum altitude of over 6,000 km.
It traveled a distance of 1,000 kilometers before landing precisely in the predetermined area of open water off the East Sea.
But its real range, according to experts, can reach 15,000 kilometers or more, and this is a worrying fact considering its ability to hit any target specifically in the United States.
More dangerous than that is its ability to carry 3 or 4 nuclear warheads at once, and it could be the largest road-going ballistic missile in the world, according to the classification of several reports.
As for the “Hwasan 31” and “Mars 25-27”, these are missiles capable of carrying modern tactical nuclear warheads revealed by Pyongyang, and they are called Hwasan 31.
North Korean President Kim Jong Un inspected these missiles, in photos released by local media in late March 2023.
This is the first time that North Korea has demonstrated its possession of tactical nuclear warheads.
The following month, Pyongyang unveiled a nuclear-capable drone submarine, which media reports said was capable of causing a radioactive tsunami, called “Hail-2”.
The submarine traveled 600 kilometers underwater over a period of about 41 hours and successfully hit the target.
spy moon
Pyongyang has crowned its arms with a spy satellite to gather real-time intelligence on the US military and its allies, according to Korean media.
Kim Jong-un ordered its launch without specifying a date, while Pyongyang tries to send messages that its response will be tough and strict in case South Korea and behind it the United States dare to take military action. against her.
North Korea’s justified fear of regular military maneuvers between US and South Korean allies.
In Pohang, Seoul and Washington held the largest joint military exercise in recent years in April 2023.
Thirty warships and 70 aircraft, including at least one nuclear-capable B-52H strategic bomber and 50 armored vehicles, participated in large-scale joint amphibious landing exercises aimed at bolstering deterrence against growing North Korean threats .
And as part of the so-called extended deterrence that prevents attacks on allies through US military means, including nuclear.
Tensions between the historically Chinese-backed North and the American-backed South did not ease anyway, even with the end of the Korean War in 1953.
A war that left one million two hundred thousand dead, between two sides with no winner or loser between them, ended with an armistice and not with the signing of an official peace, which means that the two Koreas are still technically in a state of war, and that the region became an arena for a cold war between the great powers, so that the Americans and their allies did not turn back the tide. Neither the Communists on the Peninsula nor the Korean Communists and their Chinese allies could unite the two parts of Korea under the color red.
And it remained separated by a 250 kilometer demilitarized buffer zone between the two Koreas, 50 km north of Seoul and 200 km south of Pyongyang.
The two sides agreed to withdraw their forces to a distance of 2,000 meters, in accordance with the armistice agreement. As for the adjacent areas, it is one of the most heavily fortified borders in the world, and it contains camps , artillery and minefields. North and South Korea’s stockpiles easily exceed one million shells that can be used to fire thousands of huge guns, whose nozzles point at each other across the demilitarized zone that separates them. separate.
Tension continued to prevail and relations peaked in 2022, when North Korea tested the largest number of missiles in its history, 90 ballistic missiles, including 8 intercontinental missiles.
In October of the same year, North Korea tested a medium-range missile that flew over the Sea of Japan before landing in the eastern Pacific Ocean. at 4600 km.
To confirm North Korea’s ability to launch ballistic missiles which this time could hit targets anywhere in South Korea, Japan and even US military bases on the island of Guam, which has about 22 000 soldiers.
In addition to the North Korean missile arsenal, the Hwasong-14 missile, with a range of over 10,000 km, and the Hwasong-15, with a range of around 13,000 km, which allows it to reach most of its targets in the United States.
Faced with North Korean military momentum, and in measures unprecedented since the Cold War, Washington decided to send a nuclear submarine to stop in South Korea to strengthen its deterrence capabilities against North Korea.
Seoul and Washington have agreed to deploy US strategic military capabilities to the Korean Peninsula, including nuclear-capable platforms, to deter North Korean threats.
All of this means that the most likely scenario tends to lead to a further escalation, which will not be limited to the two Koreas, but will inevitably affect their allies. The United States has about 30,000 troops in South Korea, 50,000 in neighboring Japan and 22,000 in Guam.
In Hawaii, he deploys his largest fleet, which includes 250,000 marines, 2,000 aircraft and 200 ships.
حدودا مشتركة مع الصين وروسيا، وإ ذا صدقت تقارير إعلامية قد تكون موسكو وبيونغيانغ على وشك إعادة تأسيس الحالف الحرب الباردة الذي انهار الاستفادة من أسطول المحيط الهادئ الروسي المتمركز في فلاد يفوستوك التي تبعد 479 كم عن North Korea.
China is often North Korea’s closest ally. Both countries have a mutual cooperation and assistance treaty, which is currently the only defense treaty that a country has with another country.
The tension on the Korean Peninsula is likely to remain, although its intensity varies from time to time, and perhaps its danger lies in the “edge of the abyss” policy pursued by Pyongyang, despite its certainty that any attack on Washington or Seoul will result in a response that could threaten the survival of his regime and that China will be drawn into the war on his side remains a slim possibility.
Does Washington, the main party controlling the rules of the game in the region, have the political will not to provoke North Korea, or will all-out war break out in the region, and the explosive powder keg will explode- does it accordingly? calculation errors on the one hand?
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