Strong earthquakes are preceded by strange fluctuations in the cosmic ray background, anomalies are observed 15 days before possible shocks. This conclusion was reached by Polish geophysicists, comparing data from several cosmic particle receivers and seismic activity, the article states, published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.
Despite decades of research, it has not yet been possible to identify the true mechanisms that cause the strongest earthquakes to occur. Therefore, scientists continue to seek confirmation of new, old and unusual hypotheses that may become the basis of devastating disaster prediction systems in the future.
The Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences has decided to experimentally test the long-standing but considered exotic hypothesis that earthquakes can be predicted by changes in the intensity of cosmic radiation reaching Earth. . The reason for this was a powerful earthquake in Chile in 2010, where anomalies in the ionosphere, fluctuations in the geomagnetic background and strange variations in the arrival of secondary cosmic rays were observed on 15 days, 3 days and 8 hours before the earthquake.
To test the hypothesis, the scientists used data from the CREDO project, the Extremely Distributed Cosmic Ray Observatory, created in 2016. It collects data on cosmic rays not only from sophisticated scientific instruments, but also from from numerous mobile phones whose owners participate in the project. A special application captures bright pixels on the phone’s CCD detector when the camera is closed. They arise due to the impact of high-energy particles arriving on the matrix.
Cosmic ray particles are known to enter the Earth’s atmosphere, creating cascades of secondary particles and ionizing the atmosphere. The ionization is maximum at an altitude of 20 km – the so-called Regener-Pfotzer maximum. Primary and induced particle fluxes are also important at altitudes of 10 to 12 km.
“At first glance, the idea that there is a connection between earthquakes and cosmic radiation from the Sun and deep space may seem strange. However, its physical foundations are quite rational,” explained Piotr Gomola, author of the study.
Eddy currents that arise in the Earth’s molten core generate the magnetic field surrounding the Earth. It reflects charged cosmic ray particles flying towards the planet. Therefore, if strong earthquakes are associated with the flow of matter in the core, their changes should affect the magnetic field, and then, in turn, the number of cosmic particles reaching the Earth.
Scientists analyzed data from two sensors from the global network of standardized neutron monitors NMDB (in Troitsk and Finland) and the Pierre Auger Observatory in Argentina, as they are located on opposite sides of the equator and use different recording methods. The study revealed a clear correlation between the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation and the frequency of earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4.
Cosmic ray anomalies were observed about 15 days before the seismic activity. And although scientists have not yet been able to predict the location of a possible earthquake, they hope that it will be possible in the future.
“In the scientific world, a discovery is considered to have taken place if the standard deviation is five sigma. For the observed correlation, we got six sigma, that is, the probability of a random match is 1 in a billion. So we have a good statistical basis to say that we have discovered a phenomenon that actually exists,” Gomola explained.
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