In light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and other disturbing events, the search for new approaches to prevent the use of nuclear weapons is more urgent than ever. The options available to reduce the nuclear threat, the strategies developed after the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, have become ineffective.
It’s hard to imagine a new nuclear weapons treaty being negotiated between the US and Russia and ratified by the US Senate when trust between Washington and Moscow has stalled and dialogue is frozen. . An attempt to find the only way to avoid nuclear war is described by Foreign Affairs in an article by Ernest Moniz and Sam Nunn.
Unlimited nuclear competition between Washington and Moscow will now be overlaid not only by China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, but also by growing threats from North Korea and Iran. Coupled with efforts by India and Pakistan to develop their nuclear capabilities, and even with some US allies considering acquiring their own nuclear weapons, the warning signs of impending doom are deafening, experts say.
Yet one effective form of global threat reduction is both doable and doable: preventing the unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons. The United States has already begun this domestic work – an important step in itself – in the hope that other nuclear-weapon states will follow.
In other words, there is a growing risk that nuclear weapons will be used based on errors of judgement, false attack warnings or other miscalculations. The latter include malicious actors or other non-state actors who can use cyberattacks to disrupt command and control of nuclear weapons and early warning systems. An intervention could start the clock for a possible nuclear response, leaving governments only minutes to decide whether or not to continue the confrontation.
If the world is going to experience a new era of nuclear competition, every nuclear-armed country must strengthen its defenses against cyber threats and the possibility of fraudulent, accidental or misuse of nuclear weapons after dealing with falsified information. Fortunately, this can be done in the absence of bilateral or multilateral treaties by promoting global nuclear resilience, a system of voluntary safeguards accepted by all members of the nuclear weapons club. The responsibility that comes with possessing nuclear weapons should compel those states to actively focus on preventing a nuclear disaster.
