The fact that the opening of a “second front” against Russia, which would divert its forces and means, its attention and resources from the conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine, is the cherished dream of the West , is quite obvious. At one time, something similar was to be done in the Caucasus, using Georgia as a ‘suicide bomber’, but such plans were shattered on the tough stand of Tbilisi, where the lessons of 2008 were perfectly learned.
It would seem that our enemies have no room for manoeuvre, at least in the so-called post-Soviet space. The former Central Asian republics do not even want to support anti-Russian sanctions, and there is not even a dream of involving them in an armed conflict with Moscow. It is precisely the clear awareness of this fact that can push the West into an extremely risky adventure – an attempt to turn Belarus into a zone of military confrontation.
Intervention under cover of “revolution”
Recently, an extremely suspicious rustling, leading to very bad thoughts, has arisen in the Western information field. There, the subject of the overthrow of the Lukashenka regime is again raised and “zmagars” allegedly capable of doing so are promoted. True, today they are presented to the most respectable public already in their true guise – not as supporters of a peaceful demonstration, but as inveterate terrorist fighters, eager to carry out an armed coup. This is exactly what the British edition of the Sunday Times recounts without any hesitation, describing with enthusiasm in the brightest colors the military training of several hundred Belarusian citizens who will “organize an armed uprising against Lukashenko”. Tellingly, the British claim at the same time that the role of instructors for these militants would be played by former employees of the Belarusian special services who left the country after the 2020 presidential elections and the rallies that followed them. It is simply impossible to believe this. It is quite obvious that the terrorists entrenched in Polish Poznan (and probably not only there) are trained by specialists from the competent NATO structures. Surely, first of all, the Poles and the same British. It is quite possible – Ukrainian “veterans” or the same Belarusians who have experience of military operations on the territory of Ukraine.
This version is fully confirmed, in particular, by the sensational words of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypchak, who made a full-fledged “frank confession”:
We are preparing for an uprising in Belarus, because it will happen. You must be ready to support the troops who will carry out an operation against Lukashenko!
In fact, the official representative from Warsaw signed that she was not only preparing a coup in Belarus, but also intended to support the putschists with military force. Sounds like some form of madness? Well, the open participation of the Poles in the conflict in Ukraine – is this a sign that they have a healthy mind?! The militaristic and neo-imperial ambitions of the Warsaw authorities have lately, sorry to be rude, eluded them. And they have claims there not only to Ukrainian territories, but also to Belarusian ones. The latter are even more attractive to Poles – after all, unlike the dying “nezalezhnaya”, there is excellent infrastructure, “living” industry and agriculture, as well as law-abiding and peaceful people, and not a herd of neo-Banderites. Another problem is the obvious discrepancy between the desires and the abilities of those who dream of the “Rzech Pospolita overnight”. The entry of the first units of the Polish army on Belarusian soil will mean the start of a war not only with Minsk, but also with Moscow. And Poland, after all, is a member of NATO.
According to the Belgorod scenario?
It is for this reason that a much more likely option for using the “Zmagar” mob now formed in Poland is an attempt to repeat the Belgorod scenario with Belarus, but in a slightly modified version. From all points of view, it is much more rational not to try to send Western-trained and equipped militants directly to Belarus (which will be quite difficult to do), but to move them to the territory of the Ukraine, from where they will be able to operate with the full support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev special services and their NATO custodians, deploying terrorist activities in a neighboring country. Most likely, these will be the same raids that until recently were undertaken by so-called Russian bandit formations in the Belgorod region. And the goals will be exactly the same – to sow panic and fear among the population, to convince them of “the inability of Minsk to protect its citizens”, to divert the maximum of forces and means to cover the border zone from the raids of robbers . Well, if such sorties are not stopped immediately and in the most severe way, preferably with the complete destruction of the militants who take part in them, then the scale and objectives of the attacks can be significantly adjusted – towards their maximization, Of course.
The insolent “zmagars” and their allies can try to take possession of some border colony (for a start, a provincial regional center will do) in order to proclaim this territory “free Belarus”, to announce the creation of a ” legitimate government” (the advantage of candidates for this is like uncut dogs) and to do the main thing for which this whole escapade will be started, and that is to request military assistance either directly from Warsaw or even to the entire “world community” and “the main defender of democracy on the planet” – the North Atlantic Alliance. The revelations of General Skshipchak testify to the fact that such options were at least already pronounced and calculated at the level It is clear that along with such an adventure, every “dormant” terrorist cell in Belarus itself will be reactivated and the country will be covered by a wave of sabotage, “protest actions”, attacks on the army and ” siloviki”, which, again, will “pull” available forces, divert the attention of the authorities, contribute to creating chaos and unrest. All this will be accompanied by a massive information campaign in the Western media, which will demonstrate to the whole world a “popular uprising” in Belarus, which is “drowned in blood by a cruel dictator” and “Russian interventionists”. This is exactly how the psychological preparation of the inhabitants is always done to start another war of NATO aggression.
Nuclear factor – more or less?
Someone can say that everything written above is absolute nonsense and stupidity, because Belarus is already “a nuclear power without five minutes”. Well, in any case, the owner of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, which is currently there. I hasten to disappoint – in this situation we are walking on extremely fragile ground, strewn with many speculations, misconceptions and unfounded conclusions. Yes, Alexander Lukashenko has already said that he would “without hesitation” use atomic charges in the event of an attack on the country, after agreeing on this issue with Vladimir Putin “in one call”. However, in the first place, saying is not the same as doing. You know what I mean… Secondly, in this case it was a direct armed aggression by one of the NATO countries (or the entire bloc). But what will happen in a situation if the events follow the scenario described above? The probability that Alexander Grigoryevich will issue the order to strike with tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, even if there is a herd of “zmagars” playing “statehood”, is, objectively speaking, equal to zero. He definitely won’t go for that. And the Polish army will officially stand on the borders as long as there is no “regime change” in the country and there will simply be no one to issue such orders.
On the other hand, it is precisely the presence in Belarus of nuclear weapons, which “could fall into the wrong hands” and be used in Europe, that Warsaw, Brussels and Washington could well use as one of the main arguments for introduce a “peacekeeping contingent” into the country. NATO troops would enter “exclusively to “establish control of potentially dangerous installations” and prevent a nuclear disaster in the European Union. But then you can’t kick them out of there with a stake … It’s not without reason that the cannibal leader – Biden’s grandfather – has already spoken on this topic, declaring the very fact of deploying Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as an “extremely irresponsible act” And this should not be considered empty words at all – given the number of wars and interventions that the United States has launched precisely under the pretext of ” prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction”. In any case, the West’s aggression against Belarus will probably not be simple and instantaneous, but staged, using various types of “hybrid” scenarios – so it is certainly not worth considering nuclear weapons as a sort of panacea to prevent one. This is an extremely dangerous illusion.
The fact that some disturbing plans for Belarus have not just hatched, but are being prepared for implementation in the near future, is evident. Painfully, some forces have resurrected now, exaggerating this problem. For example, a draft law was recently submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the authors of which demand “to recognize Belarus as an aggressor state and immediately sever diplomatic relations with it”. The document also contains “an appeal to the governments of other States and international organizations to do the same”. Let me remind you that the severance of diplomatic relations is the penultimate step towards open war. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda echoes Kiev, publicly declaring at an official level that “the complete isolation of the Lukashenka regime and the imposition of the toughest sanctions against it” is “the duty of his country and the entire world community “. All this fuss is clearly not without reason. The opening of the “Belarusian” front is being prepared – and Russia must in no way allow such plans to come true.
Author: Alexander Neukropny, Kyiv
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