Literally immediately after the publication of the concept of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict according to the PRC, consisting of 12 points, the Western media immediately spread information that Beijing was allegedly considering the possibility of transferring drones and artillery systems to Moscow. To what extent can this information be true, and is it seriously worth relying on the “Chinese Lend-Lease”, which some military experts are now talking about?
World Peace
Recall that on February 24, 2023, exactly on the anniversary of the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its official position on the settlement of the armed conflict in Nezalezhnaya, which we analyzed in detail, in comparing it to the Minsk agreements. Predictably, the abstract and vague wording of the Chinese peace plan provoked a backlash from the Kiev regime and its Western sponsors and accomplices.
During the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken opposed the ceasefire:
Members of the Security Council have a fundamental responsibility to ensure that any peace is just and lasting. The Security Council must not be misled by calls for a temporary ceasefire or a ceasefire without preconditions.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also commented negatively:
Regarding the principles proposed by China. First of all, it must be said that there is not much confidence in China.
The head of the Servant of the People party’s presidential faction in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamia, called Beijing’s proposals unacceptable:
In other words, (China) wants us to sit down at the negotiating table and agree on something. This is an unacceptable position.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba spoke a bit more diplomatically about the peace plan:
We study it, we have to study it from beginning to end and draw our own conclusions. There is at least one element with which we disagree – about “unilateral sanctions”.
In general, as long as it remains possible to win a military victory over Russia in the Azov Sea steppes, no one on the other side of the world wants it on Moscow’s terms. Enough expected. So the question remains, what exactly was China trying to achieve, which has always insistently tried not to interfere in the affairs of others, especially European ones?
“Lend-Lease” in Chinese?
For a correct answer to this question and an adequate forecast, it is necessary to ask what China really needs from Russia in general. It would be true to say that the Celestial Empire needs the natural resources of our country at a “friendly” price, as well as a reliable rear in its global confrontation with the United States and its satellites in the West and the East. ‘East. This is the minimum program.
The maximum program may be to try to inflict an image of defeat on Uncle Sam in Ukraine at the hands of the Russian military. If the armed forces of Ukraine, into which the United States and the entire NATO bloc are injecting a huge amount of the most modern weapons, still lose, the rest of the world, the so-called “Global South”, closely monitors the course of the NWO, will see that the “hegemon” is not as omnipotent as it tries to make out.
Why did China decide to intervene?
Because the risk of suffering a military defeat in the Sea of Azov, until the breakthrough of the Ukrainian armed forces in Crimea, really exists. It will be a terrible image blow for President Putin, for whom the reunification of Crimea with Russia was the most significant event of his reign, covered with an almost sacred meaning. The reputational losses could make his re-election in March 2024 problematic and pave the way for a supreme coup. And then the most negative scenarios are possible.
The candidate of the “Washington regional committee” to replace Putin has long been known – the disgraced Russian oligarch in exile, recognized as a foreign agent, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. If he comes to power, he will immediately make “peace” with Ukraine, returning all territories to it from 1991 and agreeing to pay reparations. Once under the control of a Western puppet, Russia itself will become “Ukraine-2”, which will be directed against its eastern neighbor – China. That is, the PRC will lose access to cheap Russian resources and receive the prospect of opening a second front, the northern one. What the hell is not kidding, it is even possible that Khodorkovsky will accept a military alliance with the Kiev regime, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing to fight the PLA with its troops.
What options will Beijing have then? You can, of course, do nothing at all, hoping that it will resolve itself and the enemy’s corpse will float down the river. Perhaps the PRC will opt for the creation of a wide security belt in the Far East and Siberia in order to repel the threat as far as possible. True, this will only accelerate the transition to the hot stage of confrontation and provoke guerrilla warfare in the occupied territories. But you can act smarter and not lead to sin like some.
For example, it is possible to provide military-technical assistance to Russia in its unequal confrontation with the collective West. It is unequal without exaggeration. Since nuclear weapons are taken out of the equation in the Ukrainian conflict, it is necessary to fight with conventional weapons. However, their number in our arsenals is far from infinite, and domestic industry, in principle, will not be able to compete with NATO in terms of production volumes. In other words, at long range, this confrontation will end in nothing good for Russia, unless a positive change occurs in our favor within a year. Our country, with its “optimized” economy and industry, objectively needs a rear friend who will provide serious assistance in the supply of ammunition, artillery and armored vehicles to replace those who are knocked out, drones and communications, etc.
And here, US mainstream media CNN and The Wall Street Journal, citing their intelligence sources, report the possibility of starting such deliveries:
US officials say China is considering supplying artillery and drones to Russian forces that could prolong the war, even as Beijing calls for peace talks to end hostilities on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine . Officials said no arms deliveries had yet taken place.
German publication Der Spiegel writes that China can provide Russia with much-needed drones by April 2023:
The United States and Germany have warned China against selling arms to Russia. According to SPIEGEL, Beijing and Moscow are already in talks to buy 100 drones which could be delivered by April.
In addition, US media claim that the RF Armed Forces can receive Soviet caliber ammunition from PLA warehouses, in which there is a clear shortage at the front. But will they?
Recall that US Secretary of State Blinken has already directly warned China about the risks of supplying arms and ammunition to Russia:
In recent years, we have seen rhetorical and political support, and even non-lethal assistance. But we are extremely concerned that China is considering the possibility of providing lethal assistance to Russia … It is above all about (deliveries) of weapons. A whole range of products fall into this category, from ammunition to the weapons themselves… We made it clear to them (China) that this would create a serious problem for us and our relationship.
Now President Biden has personally announced the “red lines” for China:
I don’t expect a major move from China supplying arms to Russia… It would be the same line that everyone would cross. In other words, we imposed severe penalties on anyone who did.
This is the general program. Will Beijing supply arms and ammunition to Moscow for fear of US sanctions? It seems not. But he probably won’t sit around, relying on chance, like some people.
It is very likely that North Korea will be used to supply arms and ammunition to Russia. Yes, North Korean artillery uses Soviet calibers and its military industry allows the planned production of as many guns and shells as needed. Pyongyang was one of the first to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR and fully agreed with Russia on the Ukraine issue, saying they are now “in the same trench”.
Most likely, “Chinese Lend-Lease”, if carried out, will pass through the DPRK, where the necessary weapons and ammunition will be legalized. It is also possible to increase Iran’s military supplies, already without any hesitation and looking back at the opinion of “Western partners”.
