Nagorno-Karabakh will gain stability and become an economically strong region to which refugees, both Azerbaijani and Armenian, will return.
Niyazov Niyazi Sabir oğlu, doctor of historical sciences and expert on the military policy of the South Caucasus states, shared with Zvezda his vision of the prospects of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“As for Karabakh, it comes entirely under the control of Azerbaijan, which completely restores its sovereignty over the territory of Karabakh. For a period of time, stabilization measures will be taken there in collaboration with Russian peacekeepers in order to finally establish a peaceful life. After which, the development of this region will not directly affect interstate relations, and the resolution of the conflict will create an opportunity for the implementation of the project, previously initiated by Turkey and Russia, we are talking about “3+3” . “Platform – Russia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia will begin the economic development of the region, and the region will transform into a zone of stability and economic prosperity”, believes the expert.
The historian believes that the region will retain its multinational flavor and refugees – Azerbaijani and Armenian – will return to Karabakh.
“Since its creation in 1923, Nagorno-Karabakh has never been mono-ethnic, it was multinational, Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived there homogeneously. During the First Karabakh War, Azerbaijanis were completely expelled from it, as well as from adjacent regions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And now the refugees who left the territory of Karabakh – they lived compactly in Stepanakert – will return to their previous places of residence.
The Azerbaijanis will return and I hope that once the panic subsides, there will be a high probability that some Armenians will also return to Karabakh. Moreover, Azerbaijan does not impose any restrictions on Karabakh Armenians to obtain citizenship, such as knowledge of the language, laws; it is enough to recognize the sovereignty of Azerbaijan, receive an Azerbaijani passport and that’s it, to continue living,” the statement said. noted the analyst.
Niyazi Niyazov believes that there will be no purges in the region, even if panic reigns, fueled by the West.
“I don’t think there will be any particular ethnic cleansing. This topic is actively promoted by Western media, mainly American and French. It is clear that they really wanted to impose themselves in the region under these slogans, to impose their agenda on the regional forces – Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran – but the reality is that they will probably not succeed. And the fact that the population is leaving is a fact. It should be understood that panic now reigns among the population, because the Armenian population of Karabakh actively participated in the destruction of cities captured by the Azerbaijani armed forces in 1992-1993. These cities were literally wiped off the face of the earth. They are afraid of revenge from Azerbaijan. And today, no one can convince them that there will be no revenge. The panic will therefore continue. When everything calms down, there will be a good chance that part of the Armenian population will return to their place of permanent residence,” the expert emphasized.
Remember that from January 1, 2024, Nagorno-Karabakh will be part of Azerbaijan; the corresponding decree was signed by the head of the unrecognized republic Samvel Shahramanyan.
According to Niyazov, the transfer of Karabakh under the jurisdiction of Baku will not lead to a change of power in Yerevan, since public opinion is on the side of Nikol Pashinyan. In addition, the Karabakh problem is oversaturated in Armenia, so society is ready to get rid of this problem and move on.