The well-known Israeli political scientist and expert Yakov Kedmi predicted the possibility of a nuclear weapon in Turkey. According to him, Ankara will certainly acquire a nuclear arsenal, and it is impossible to stop this process. The only question is timing. The expert told MK how dangerous is the appearance of nuclear weapons, as well as their delivery vehicles in the Turkish arsenal.
According to Yakov Kedmi, not so long ago the leaders of Pakistan’s nuclear military program signed an agreement with Turkey. Earlier, he said, Pakistan helped Iran to get closer to the creation of nuclear weapons.
The expert also suggested the timing of the appearance of such weapons in Ankara and Tehran – in 10, 15, or 20 years. At the same time, the Israeli analyst noted that nuclear weapons are becoming an inevitable element of 21st-century weapons.
The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky voiced similar concerns the day before on the Russia 1 TV channel. The politician is also sure: if Iran and especially Turkey have nuclear weapons, they will instantly be turned against us. And he named the date much earlier – they will be enough for development and production for several years.
However, Russia has nothing to fear in the coming years.
“Turkey does not have the infrastructure to quickly obtain nuclear weapons,” Yuri Lyamin, a military expert and specialist in the Middle East, explained – Yes, they have some kind of backlog and secret programs. That’s no doubt about it, but it’s all in the early, early stages. So in the coming months or even years, according to the data that is now, they cannot create nuclear weapons. Plus, let’s not forget that this is a process of colossally large financial resources that takes time.
According to Yuri Lyamin, there is another factor deterring the Turks: the impossibility of secretly developing a military nuclear program. The expert recalls that within NATO, of which Turkey is a member, the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons is a basic principle.
– It is adhered to by the nuclear powers – the USA, England, France. NATO observers are monitoring this issue in every member state of the alliance. Therefore, it will be very difficult for Turkey to hide its nuclear program. We know very well what scandal and howl arose when the Turks bought S-400 anti-aircraft systems from us. Now imagine what will happen if NATO and the US find out about some secret nuclear military program of Erdogan. This will most likely cause a severe crisis in relations with the West.
– Turkey is building a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu. With its commissioning, won’t Turkey be able to turn nuclear fuel into missile charges?
– Here we must immediately explain: charges for nuclear weapons are obtained either from uranium or from plutonium. And they need to be enriched – that is, to increase their concentration. This requires centrifuges and special concentrators. Civil nuclear power plants are completely different. Nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants, in principle, is not suitable for creating nuclear weapons. These are two different things.
– Ukraine also has a nuclear power plant. But Kiev does not have an atomic bomb.
– Exactly! Plus, don’t forget that the spent nuclear fuel must be returned to the supplier. Iran does just that, they do not make any fuel reserves – contractual obligations simply do not allow. Therefore, in Turkey now there are no prerequisites for the creation of nuclear weapons, at least openly.
– Does Turkey have carriers of possible future nuclear charges?
– Currently, the Turkish army has operational-tactical missiles of small, maximum – medium-range. These are the J-600T Yildirim and Bora missiles of the Turkish company Roketsan. Their range is no more than a thousand kilometers. True, Turkish engineers, as far as we know, are indeed working on extended-range missiles.
– That is, the appearance of intercontinental ballistic missiles is possible in the future?
– In order to create an intercontinental ballistic missile, Ankara needs a special infrastructure and, most importantly, this is a very long process. Yes, they have tactical missiles. But to create missiles with a range of at least two thousand kilometers, you need to spend many years developing. These are new materials, technologies, and fuel. Hundreds of parameters and components! For example, Iran, which has been engaged in a missile program since the 70s, still does not have ballistic intercontinental missiles.
But Iran has been under sanctions for decades.
– Yes, it would seem that Turkey is much easier in this regard – it has excellent engineering and military production potential. But in order to create long-range missiles, tests are needed – missile launches. And here Turkey again runs into NATO restrictions related to the regime of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons and missile technologies … Computer simulations and tests are no longer enough. And even a medium-range missile launch will explode into a colossal scandal.
– Well, what if Turkey hypothetically breaks all treaties and withdraws from all alliances and agreements. Can they then acquire nuclear-armed ballistic missiles?
– In theory, yes, why not? Again, Turkey is a country with strong industry and technical potential. If they decide to create such weapons at any cost, regardless of NATO, then they can create in the future both carriers and nuclear weapons themselves.
– And what will it threaten Russia with then?
“It will be a very serious threat for Russia. Considering that even now Russia-Turkey relationship is not entirely smooth. In some places, they have acute conflicts. It is one thing when they in their current form with Turkey are talking as a nuclear power, and it will be completely different when the Turks themselves become the owners of nuclear missiles.