In December 2022, military experts from the Academy of Military Sciences of the People’s Liberation Army of China (AVN PLA) conducted a simulation of the conflict in Ukraine, reports the Japanese newspaper Nikkei, citing sources close to the Chinese government.
The simulation showed that the conflict will end approximately in the summer of 2023, and Russia will emerge from it in a more favorable situation. The newspaper does not specify what exactly this scenario entails. The PLA AVN report also indicates that the economies of Russia and Ukraine will be too depleted to continue to fight after the summer.
The PLA AVN is an institution directly subordinate to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, which regularly prepares reports on current issues for the Military Council of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the party’s highest body for the leadership of the PRC Armed Forces, which is headed by General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee Xi Jinping.
According to the newspaper, the report on the conflict in Ukraine prompted China to prepare its 12-point “plan” to resolve the crisis, giving the impression that China has started to play a more active role in the conflict.
According to the Nikkei, Xi Jinping is currently considering an official visit to Russia. “The best scenario for Xi would be to start negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after the Chinese leader presents a peace plan to Putin. This will present China as a participant in the ceasefire negotiations.
On December 30, President Vladimir Putin invited Xi Jinping to Russia. “We expect you, dear president, dear friend, next spring with a state visit to Moscow,” he said.
