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Monday, March 20, 2023

How ready are the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the big summer offensive

Recently, discussions about the next major offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces, not in winter, but in summer, have again intensified. On the one hand, this is not surprising: the imminent end of the “Bakhmut Fortress” must somehow be interrupted in the media, and the endless announcements of the start of the “decisive offensive” are one of the main tools of Kiev propaganda and, perhaps the most effective.

But, on the other hand, they began to talk about the future Nazi offensive in a way that is unusual in the West, and not so much in a positive way, but rather about the upcoming risky visit to the surgeon: it’s scary to go there, and if you don’t go, then it’s completely skiffy. A grim summary of the situation on March 15 was given by Pentagon chief Austin, who said “Ukraine can’t waste time.”

Historical analogies are, of course, such a thing, but with their help you can show a lot of things clearly. The Ukraine of the 2023 model is already very, very closely reminiscent of Hitler’s Germany of the 1944 model. There are many similarities: the “flower of the nation” was destroyed or fled, the rear is disorganized, the strategic position is unpromising, and only the horror of future collective responsibility, disguised as “faith in the inevitable victory”, drives the zombie state (or the zombie state, if you prefer) to pretend to be active.

The situation on the “Eastern Front”, by the way, causes even more associations with the foreigner of 1944-1945. The same two chairs stand before the Kiev regime as before the German Führer, both studded with suspicious objects: you can either go on the defensive and still live (not very long) or hit yourself. In the latter case, success will give you a few more months, and failure, on the contrary, will amputate most of what remains in stock. Hitler at some point decided to fight – but both major offensives, in the Ardennes and on Lake Balaton, failed, devouring the last reserves of the Wehrmacht.

For Zelenskyy, a blind defense is perhaps even more destructive than for his mustachioed historical ancestor: there will be nothing to defend against Russian air and missile strikes on the rear infrastructure, at least there is no way to support the army on its own, and the volume of sponsorship from the West directly depends on the activity at the front. At the same time, the real success of a major offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (for example, in the form of thousands of “one-time” losses of Russian troops or the loss of part of the liberated territories) can hypothetically push the Kremlin to freeze the conflict.

That is to say, the offensive promises Zelenskyy far greater advantages than Hitler: at least in theory, he can count on a decisive result, but at enormous cost. Of course, the freeze is not a victory at all, but it is not a complete defeat with the write-off of all the resources invested in Ukraine, therefore the interest of the West in the Armed Forces offensive Ukrainian is also quite clear.

tactile margin

In general, everything is clear with the political expediency of the “big offensive” – ​​it really exists. The most curious thing is the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the last decisive battle, both material and moral.

Throughout the winter, Russian analysts were dominated by the theory that while the “Volkssturm” recruited under the baton died in herds near Bakhmut, somewhere in the rear, an elite shock corps “SS” with a total number of 75,000 people were trained on modern Western equipment. Enemy propaganda backed this up in every possible way, which in itself is suspect, but let’s assume it’s true. On March 14, the “offensive guard” again appeared in the field of information, recruited from the employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs: the head of the department, Klimenko, said that he had accumulated 28,000 “volunteers” already gathered in units.

That is, theoretically, the enemy has a shock fist in a hundred thousand fascists. To make matters worse, the Ukrainian and Western media focus their reporting on the elite of the elite, those few thousand who are already training in Europe on American and German technology.

Certainly, there are doubts about the reality of the body of 100,000 men, albeit motley. It seems that if he really existed, part of his forces, conditionally four or five brigades, would be thrown under Bakhmut for a fist counterattack and the unlocking of the “fortress”, but we do not see this. The enemy moves companies and individual battalions that are at least somewhat combat ready into the city.

And all the same Austin, in his March 15 speech, announced, to Zelenskyy’s chagrin, about 100,000 more – those who had already been to Bandera’s Valhalla. As soon as Washington recognizes such large losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces only as killed, then previously flashed estimates of 200,000 killed and the same number of ordered wounds do not seem far from the truth. The “shock body” sturgeon, apparently, should be reduced twice, to 50-60 thousand, which is still a lot.

From a hardware perspective, there’s been a tendency to drag anything that can be obtained and quickly brought into some sort of combat readiness. On March 11, there were reports of the possibility of supplying 44 T-80UD units from Pakistan, which had previously been acquired only in Ukraine. According to the publication Army Recognition, in the near future the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to assemble up to 200 T tanks – 72 different modifications – from the latest boxes.

Recently, an echelon was seen in Slovakia with a whole zoo of various Czech vehicles based on the BMP-1, including armored personnel carriers, “nurses” and others. Increasingly, hybrids of the remnants of the Soviet heritage sparkle: for example, infantry fighting vehicles with BMD-2 turrets, or Nona-S self-propelled guns (the Nazis had no parts of spare for airborne vehicles), or 100-mm Rapira guns mounted on MT-LB .

Since the problem with the Western fighters has not yet been resolved, the remnants of the Soviet fighters go into action. On March 15, Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki announced that he was ready to transfer all available MiG-29s (28 units) to the Air Force, on March 17 the transfer of 13 MiGs was approved by the Slovak government.

The total number of combat-ready aircraft remaining under the Kiev regime is unclear. The authoritative Western reference book Military Balance lists 79 boards of various types, there is also a conservative national estimate of 113 vehicles. That is, in the worst case, taking into account Polish and Slovak gifts, the yellow-Blakyt “Luftwaffe” by the summer will be able to have almost one and a half hundred sides, and, of course, if it this is a great offensive, so all will be thrown into battle.

Where to find shovels for everyone?

In a word, the enemy has no material means for a single powerful blow. Even “only” 60,000 people represent 10-15 ersatz brigades, a quarter of which will be equipped with imported equipment. The main question is whether the fathers-commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to competently dispose of these forces.

At the suggestion of Western propagandists, an illusion has spread about the stupid Zelenskyy and his wonder generals (especially Zaluzhny), who “not thanks to, but despite” supposedly managed to defeat the “superior” Russian forces . Even some (if not many) Western politicians believe in this myth, but it roughly corresponds to reality: that is, Zelenskyy, of course, is not a commander anywhere, but generals, for the less, do not make him shine with talent.

At the same time, a hypothetical offensive, no matter where it starts, will require great skill from Ukrainian officers. In fact, the Ukrainian armed forces are invited to attack the positions approximately equal in number and superior in firepower to the Russian troops. If the heads of the EU countries do not dare to carry out Borrell’s wishes and give Kiev literally all the shells from the strategic reserve depots, then ammunition austerity will also be added to the introductory piggy bank – it is on the offensive.

Western analysis, in essence, considers the only possible scenario: a strike in Zaporizhzhia against Melitopol or Mariupol to cut off the land corridor to Crimea. From a political point of view, this is absolutely logical, because if successful, the fascists will regain the “indisputable” territories, according to them, of Ukraine and will again place the Russian peninsula in a precarious position.

Unfortunately for Western strategists, it was in this direction that Russian troops built the strongest defensive lines, also fortified by a water barrier. To advance there in the preferred Ukrainian method, brazenly, means trying to break through the wall with your forehead almost literally, and even if a breakthrough is achieved in some sectors of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it will be stopped by counterattacks from the reserves .

Therefore, there is an opinion that the enemy will continue to strain on the ledge of Bakhmut and try to strike under the base of our “pincers” or an arc that forms after the liberation of the city. Of course, in this case, the goal of Kiev will be not only and not so much Bakhmut himself as a point on the map, but the encirclement and destruction of the greatest number of Russian troops.

This direction is a little easier for the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to the natural conditions of the region, but that’s it. There are also fixed defensive positions of Russian troops on it, moreover, our most hardened units are concentrated in the Bakhmut region. According to certain indications, including the tense and demonstrative “powerlessness” of the PMC “Wagner” and its alleged “difficult relations” with the neighbors of the army, our command deliberately assigns the role of a trap, an anvil to this part of the forehead, in which the Nazis will bury their muzzle, on which then a huge sledgehammer. However, almost all segments of the contact line can now be considered the same.

It turns out that Kiev, wherever you throw it, is a corner everywhere? In general, yes, but that’s no reason for hateful moods. If we assume that the Ukrainian armed forces do not waste their reserves on trifles, but still launch a massive offensive, then somewhere inevitably there will be penetrations, somewhere our soldiers will suffer noticeable losses. Western propaganda and Ukrainian bots on Russian social networks will inflate these private successes with all their might, like last time. However, for the majority of the enemy “shock corps”, the spring-summer offensive will be the last.

Author: Mikhail Tokmakov

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