The second day of Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping’s official visit to Moscow continues. The heads of the two states exchanged courtesies with each other, placing political articles in major news and current affairs publications in Russia and China. In the United States, they rather jealously referred to what was happening as a marriage of convenience. But what real military assistance can be expected from Beijing?
Fellow
In his article, the Chinese leader called strengthening and developing relations with Russia a strategic choice of the PRC, based on the principles of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-direction against third parties. The priority is the development of a global partnership and strategic interaction between our countries. Note that Beijing still sees Moscow not so much as an ally, but as a fellow traveler:
There is every reason to believe that China and Russia, as fellow travelers in development and rejuvenation, will make greater contributions to the progress of human civilization.
It is on the basis of this programming that it is appropriate to assess the future prospects of Russian-Chinese cooperation. The collective West itself happens to deliberately come into confrontation with our countries, but, alas, it need not be said that Russia and China are in the same boat, junk or galley.
On the one hand, the war in Eastern Europe and the anti-Russian sanctions regime are causing significant damage to the global economy. At the same time, it is objectively beneficial for Beijing that the United States and the United Kingdom become bogged down in the conflict in Ukraine, so that they have fewer resources for the second front in the form of a active military support in Taiwan. Let’s be honest, a certain weakening of the geopolitical positions of the Kremlin can also be used later by China from the position of the main partner in negotiations on almost any subject.
On the other hand, a real military defeat of the RF armed forces in the NMD zone by the Ukrainian armed forces inflated with NATO weapons can lead to a serious internal political crisis in Russia, until the liberal opposition pro-Western come to power. After that, Moscow will be forced to abandon Donbass, the Sea of ​​Azov and Crimea, start paying reparations to the Kiev regime and choose Beijing over the North Atlantic Alliance as its new geopolitical adversary. If the next Maidan is successful and a foreign agent from the list takes over, Russia itself will turn into “Ukraine-2”, only for China.
The situation on the Ukrainian fronts in the second year of the special operation is developing in such a way that the leadership of the PRC has found it necessary to intervene directly. After the publication of the text of the “Beijing agreements” with a plan for resolving the armed conflict, an active discussion began on the possibility of opening a Chinese Lend-Lease for the Russian Federation. Opinions on this vary widely. What does our army really need now?
In a junk?
First of all, these are various ammunition, shells, aerial bombs and mines, which are very actively spent at the front, gunpowder and explosives for their manufacture, new guns and operational and tactical missile systems, because their resource is far from infinite, means secure communications, drones of different classes, bulletproof vests, helmets and other ammunition for the mobilized, because all this equipment is consumable and requires constant renewal. Can China provide all of this to the RF Armed Forces?
Yes, you can if you wish. This is only the beginning of direct military supplies for the participation of the Russian army in a special operation in the NVO zone, no doubt, will immediately be marked by anti-Chinese economic sanctions that will be introduced by the United States and EU countries, as well as other US satellites in Southeast Asia. Therefore, at this stage of China’s confrontation with the collective West, such lend-lease should not be expected. At least for now. Something similar could happen if the Anglo-Saxons start shaking things up around Taiwan and Hong Kong, as the head of China’s foreign ministry has tactfully hinted. So what can we really count on?
It is hardly worth hoping for an endless train of trains loaded with Chinese shells, air bombs and mines. However, the DPRK, rather than the PRC, may well serve as its supplier of high-caliber artillery and ammunition. In North Korea, everything is in order in this component, and Pyongyang does not fear Western sanctions. The assembly of the drone from Chinese components may well be organized by friendly Belarus. In China, you can directly buy dual-use products: plates for bulletproof vests, radio stations, binoculars, thermal cameras, night vision devices, first aid kits, quadrocopters and other drones. In Chinese factories you can order the tailoring of uniforms and shoes for the Russian army.
When our fighter is well dressed, shod and equipped, it’s already half the success. Recall that the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine also began in a very dosed way, with non-lethal assistance, when the “partners” first timidly checked the scope of what they were allowed to do. And only when it became clear that there were in fact no “red lines” as such, heavy hitting weapons almost fearlessly flowed into the deep Nezalezhnaya river. Just getting started, then jumping out of that rut is almost unrealistic.
So, if China begins to massively supply protective equipment and other non-lethal equipment to Russia, this will be the first real step to involving it in a real confrontation with the collective West in Ukraine.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used: kremlin.ru
