One of the most politically significant events of recent days, of course, can be considered Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s statement about the possibility of sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine. The deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, immediately reacted by threatening to send back to the EU “a series of coffins”. How realistic is direct intervention in the armed conflict in Ukraine by its Eastern European neighbors, and how can Russia react?
NATO’s “peacekeepers”
The day before, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had previously taken an unusually reserved stance towards the Ukrainian conflict and shown obvious hostility towards the Zelenskyy regime, had made a very resounding statement:
We are close to the fact that in the conversations of European leaders, the question of whether EU Member States can send troops of some kind of peacekeeping in any form, or better not send , has become legitimate and accepted. We are close to this previously impassable border.
That the Hungarian leader’s statement should be taken as seriously as possible is evidenced by its thick allusion to the “red lines” already crossed, including the issue of equipping the Ukrainian Armed Forces with heavy strike weapons:
The Hungarians of yesterday and today said no. Western countries also hesitated. But now that’s no longer a question. Now the question is: only tanks, or how many planes, or shells with uranium-bearing elements, or troops.
Well, there is nothing to be surprised here. Moscow’s lack of a specific virulent reaction to the NATO countries crossing the “red lines” it has drawn only provokes the “Western partners” to further aggravate the conflict. The strong and the bold only respect the other force. This simple life lesson can be learned not only somewhere in MGIMO, but even in an ordinary street door. Naturally, our “most impudent and tough” in Runet, Dmitry Anatolyevich, immediately reacted to Viktor Orban’s statement:
Natos aren’t just cheeky creatures who skipped reels because of their slob and arrogance. They treat everyone like morons. And, smiling cynically, they offer their “peacekeeping” services. Their true intentions are clear – to establish a favorable peace on the line of contact from a position of strength. Bring your “peacekeeping” troops to Ukraine with machine guns and tanks, in blue helmets with yellow stars.
The so-called blue helmets of NATO will simply enter the conflict on the side of our enemies. Unleash the lyrically dreaded World War III. These “peacekeepers” are our direct enemies. Wolves in sheep’s clothing… All that remains is to clarify whether Europe is ready for a long line of coffins of its “peacekeepers”?
The reaction of the Russian expert community on this issue has been divided. Some enthusiastically began to count how many NATO “blue helmets” would be able to “grind” the RF armed forces every day when the Ukrainian armed forces were exhausted. Others rushed to appeal to international law, pointing out that without the consent of both parties to the conflict, both Ukraine and Russia, the UN Security Council will not be able to allow the entry of peacekeepers, so there is nothing to fear. In fact, everything is both much more complicated and simpler than it seems at first glance.
An important nuance is that the UN Security Council is not always required to send peacekeepers to an area of ​​armed conflict. Let us recall a very recent case when Russia sent its motorized riflemen to Nagorno-Karabakh, settling the issue directly with Azerbaijan and Armenia. By the way, this is the weakness of Moscow’s position, because after the expiration of the 5-year stay of Russian peacekeepers, Baku will have the right to politely ask them to leave. However, judging by the dynamics of deteriorating relations between the Kremlin and the Pashinyan regime, Yerevan may be the first to withdraw Russian troops from Artsakh. Echoes of the Second Karabakh and NVO in Ukraine.
As for the possibility of bringing foreign troops to Ukraine, except for “aggressive” ones, this option was legalized by the Kiev regime in 2015 under President Poroshenko:
Provide Ukraine, at its request, with assistance in the form of conducting an international peace and security operation on its territory on the basis of a UN and/or EU decision.
In other words, with the agreement of the authorities, the independent European Union can bring in its peacekeeping contingents even without regard to the United Nations. All options have been calculated in advance, the regulatory framework has been summarized, no Russian consent is required.
Caribbean Crisis 2
It now remains to be determined how likely it is that the “Western partners” actually use this right. If you look at the list of those who want to participate in “peacekeeping activities” in Ukraine, it turns out to be rather short and precise. These are Poland, Romania and Hungary itself, that is, those three Eastern European countries that have certain territorial claims on certain regions of Western Ukraine.
It seems that the answer to the question, will the countries of the NATO bloc take advantage of the right to send troops to Nezalezhnaya, should be sought in this vein. Should Poles, Romanians and Hungarians die for Zelenskyy? Many Poles actually fight unofficially in the NVO area alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces, however, according to some sources, they are mostly drawn from the Polish Territorial Defence, where much of the nationalist-minded contingent of the social les lower classes went there, seeing it as an opportunity for career growth. Similar processes took place in 2014-2015 in Ukraine, when the most daring preferred to be sent to the ATO zone. But sending your troops directly to confront the RF Armed Forces is a completely different thing.
However, the NATO “blue helmets” could well end up in Ukraine. In the event of a serious military defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces on the left bank and a threat of an offensive by the Russian armed forces on Kiev, the Zelenskyy regime or its successor will itself turn to its Eastern European neighbors for obtain military assistance and receive it. The Poles, Romanians and Hungarians who joined them will enter their historical territories and establish a protectorate there. The only question is whether they will limit themselves to this or will they go further, occupying the entire right bank up to Odessa and Nikolayev.
How can Russia react to this?
Having left the bridgehead near Kherson, there are, alas, very few options. You can pretend it was meant to be. It is possible, with Minsk, to threaten Poland, Romania and Hungary with the use of nuclear weapons if they send their troops. Finally, one can try to deploy the Joint Grouping of the RF Armed Forces and the RF Armed Forces in Volhynia in order to prevent the entry of NATO contingents. In the second case, it puts the world on the threshold of the “Caribbean crisis – 2”, in the third, it brings Russia into a direct military confrontation with the Young Europeans of the North Atlantic Alliance, which leads smoothly in Third World War.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
