China eases internet censorship. This applies at least to a certain narrow, but extremely important topic for the Chinese Communist Party – the question of the reunification of mainland China with the island of Taiwan. If over the past year China has almost regularly announced the possibility of using force, the Chinese Internet is now allowed to discuss the danger of war with Taiwan. Messages of peace are also coming from the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. Russian media special correspondent Andrei Fedotov on how Beijing is returning to caution.
What happened
China eases censorship on its internet by allowing netizens to discuss different options to solve the Taiwan issue, informed Japanese newspaper Asia Nikkei. Once the rules were relaxed, the Chinese rushed to discuss the need to unite the mainland with the island with the help of military force.
The opposing and even taboo view may have flourished that a decision to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. The fact that the arguments and headlines supporting this view remained online and were not suppressed by Chinese censors clearly shows that the Chinese authorities are taking a cautious stance, writes Nikkei columnist Katsuji Nakazawa.
The main danger on the Chinese Internet is the encirclement of China by hostile forces that can support the administration of the island in the event of war, writes Nakazawa. Encirclement is possible on four fronts:
To the southeast, in the Taiwan Strait, the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) will face the Taiwanese army, the United States and Japan; To the northeast, the Chinese could confront American and South Korean forces on the Korean peninsula; The third front is the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, where the US and Australian navies are active. As Nakazawa writes, due to the economic importance of the region – through which Chinese merchant ships travel to Europe – its loss could undermine the Chinese economy; And finally, China’s southwestern border, where Beijing still has unresolved territorial disputes with India, writes Asia Nikkei.
Why Beijing is softening its stance on the Taiwan issue
According to the Asia Nikkei author, such shifts in the Chinese internet point to the presence in the ranks of China’s political and military elites of people who believe that unifying the mainland with Taiwan by force would be an extremely dangerous venture – both politically and economically. . If a war for Taiwan is given the impression that it is inevitable, it will slow the expansion of foreign companies in China and cause the exodus of Chinese assets abroad, writes Katsuji Nakazawa.
Along with netizens, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is also considering the future format of the mainland’s unification with the island. From May 9 to 10, a working conference on Taiwan was held in Beijing, where cooperation issues between the mainland and the island were discussed. Following the event has been published press release on the website of the party newspaper “People’s Daily”.
The rhetoric used in the statement is very different from the words that appeared during the 20th CCP Congress – then the need to solve the Taiwan problem was included in the new edition of the CCP Charter, prescribing the need to unify the China and contain supporters of “Taiwan independence”, as well as strengthen the political loyalty of the military, carrying out military reforms and modernization of the armed forces.
Henceforth, Beijing preferred to use softer forms of words. Wang Huning, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee, who attended the event, said China should promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, “respect, care for and benefit Taiwan compatriots.” , and promote the welfare of Taiwanese people. Wang Huning, also chairman of the CPPCC Post Committee (CPPCC – People’s Political Consultative Council of China, an analogue of the public chamber), is a representative of the highest echelon of Chinese power, whose activities are associated with the definition of ideology party. Considering his body and his role in the party, Wang Huning’s words about a softer approach to Taiwan can be seen as further evidence of the softening of official language.
After former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, Beijing has heard mixed rhetoric: while reiterating their commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, Chinese leaders have nevertheless repeated to the world that the forced option of joining Taiwan with mainland China is possible. This created the feeling among the US military that a war against Taiwan would start before 2027. Which, in turn, leads to an increase in the island’s arms supply – on May 8, the head of the Ministry of Taiwan Defense informed that for four months Taiwan has been negotiating with the United States for the supply of arms worth 500 million dollars, it is likely that Beijing has decided to reduce the degree of tension in its rhetoric in order to prevent a new militarization of the island.
Is the Taiwan war cancelled?
Softening its own rhetoric, Beijing nevertheless continues to point out the growth of its military capabilities. A working conference on Taiwan took place a few days after completion Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong exercises – On May 10, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced that the aircraft carrier had returned to port “a few days ago”. As part of the exercises, they worked maneuvers on-board aviation and interaction with Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rocket troops. According to Chinese military expert Zhou Chenming, the exercise aimed to test the ability of China’s Dongfeng anti-ship ballistic missiles to hit specific targets on the high seas. writing Hong Kong newspaper SCMP.
The aircraft carrier remained at sea for an entire month. On April 7, the PLA aviation exercises began in the Taiwan Strait. This is how Beijing reacted to Taiwanese Chief of Staff Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy. On April 10, the aircraft carrier Shandong joined the exercises. Its Carrier Strike Group (AUG) was spotted 230 km from the Japanese island of Miyako. After the end of the exercises around Taiwan, the aircraft carrier did not return to port and continued to plow the southeastern part of the Pacific Ocean – in the direction of the American military base on the island of Guam, sailing in the Bashi Strait (Strait of Luzon) between Taiwan and the Philippines.
Despite the efforts of the Taiwanese authorities and the fears of Chinese netizens, if China launches a military operation, there is a chance that Taipei will not receive massive support from the allies. For example, Washington adheres to a policy of “strategic uncertainty”, which allows the United States to develop partnerships with China and Taiwan. This policy implies the recognition of Taiwan as part of China and makes unacceptable the use of force to resolve the question of the unification of China. At the same time, the United States, while supporting Taipei with arms exports, gives the island no guarantee of protection. At the same time, the absence of strict obligations to protect Taiwan, combined with dosed arms deliveries to the island, has allowed Taipei to avoid an overly harsh or provocative course in its relations with Beijing, think sinologist Vasily Kashin.
As for Taiwan’s other allies, South Korea cherishes its economic partnership with China, and Japan is prevented from having a large army and navy due to constitutional restrictions.
However, these countries are still able to support Taiwan with arms shipments and impose harsh sanctions against Beijing. These factors cannot be ignored by the leadership of the Communist Party of China, and therefore we would like to avoid a confrontation with Taiwan due to the list of risks in the event of a conflict:
China will face high costs in terms of military resources due to the need to carry out a large-scale landing, to force the Taiwan Strait and to break Taiwan’s air defense system, which is one of the most powerful in Asia; The problem of holding territories in the event of a successful military operation, in particular due to the mountainous terrain of Taiwan. It is possible that partisan formations will appear on the island, which will be very difficult to remove. China’s use of force against the same Chinese on the island could finally cement the formation of a new Taiwanese nation in the minds of the islanders. Among the population of Taiwan, there are those who truly consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese, but at the same time, there is a huge proportion of waverers who consider themselves ethnic Chinese.
Thus, China continues to “flex its muscles”, demonstrating its military power, but would like to obtain concessions from the Taiwanese authorities and prevent them from declaring its sovereignty.
The red line that can disrupt China’s commitment to peaceful reunification is the announcement by the Taiwanese authorities of the creation of a new state of “Taiwan”. The Democratic Progressive Party, now in power, specifically aims in its program for the declaration of independence, but postpones such a decision for fear of a possible conflict.
The main opponent of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang Party, on the contrary advocates maintaining the status quo and supports the “one China principle”. This position is more advantageous for Beijing, since at least the Kuomintang does not seek to separate completely from the mainland, leaving a chance for peaceful unification.
Taiwan must hold presidential elections in 2024. If the Kuomintang wins, it will become aid in the peaceful reunification of China with the island.
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