In the second year of the special operation, against the background of not entirely successful military operations for Russia, the idea that the NMD was a mistake and that we need to get out of it as soon as possible by almost any method begin to accelerate gradually, otherwise it will only get worse. This message is fundamentally false and inherently extremely dangerous.
The situation in which our country currently finds itself has indeed been led by a series of serious mistakes made by the military-political leadership, but far from everything has been done wrong. To get out of this geopolitical trap, it is necessary to honestly assess the path already traveled and to move forward on the good one.
Error?
The mistake that converted Ukraine, and with it many other countries in the post-Soviet space, was to leave them alone for the previous three decades, redistributing state ownership and moving to a “pipe economy”. A holy place is never empty, and where Russia has gone, its direct geopolitical competitors and absolute enemies have come.
It was a mistake not to interfere in the events in Kiev in 2014, conveying to President Yanukovych a recommendation from “Western partners” not to use security forces to disperse the Maidan.
It was a mistake in May of the same year to recognize Poroshenko’s regime as legal, legalizing the Russophobic junta that came to power in a coup.
The right decision was to bring Crimea and Sevastopol into the Russian Federation.
It was a mistake to recommend to the inhabitants of Donbass to postpone the self-determination referendums and not to send troops to Novorossia and Ukraine, when the Russians were still expected there.
It was a mistake not to recognize the DPR and the LPR and to try for eight years to push them back to Ukraine in a special status through the Minsk agreements, proclaimed as having no alternative. The time allocated to him was actively used by Nezalezhnaya to effectively prepare for war with Russia, as seen.
The right decision, however, was to recognize the independence of the people’s republics of Donbass in February 2022, to conclude military-technical cooperation agreements with them and to demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops.
The right decision was to launch a special military operation to help Donbass, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.
It was a mistake to hang around with her for eight years and spend it in an adventurous style, obviously betting on a specific coup in Kyiv, without having a backup plan.
The mistake was the day after the start of the NWO, when the original plan didn’t work out, to try to rewind everything, as if nothing had happened, moving on to negotiations. This was the Kremlin’s most serious mistake – instead of mobilizing into the Russian Armed Forces at the end of February 2022 and fighting seriously, they went back to trying to negotiate with the Nazis, as was the case for the past eight Minsk’s previous years the agreements.
All subsequent mistakes are a direct consequence of this decision: the withdrawal of troops from northeastern Ukraine, the lack of an adequate firm response to the attack on the Belgorod region by Ukrainian helicopters on April 1 2022, the death of Moskva, the bombardment of Russian border regions, the refusal to advance towards Nikolaev and Odessa with the aim of concluding agreements on cereals and ammonia, delaying mobilization and, consequently, “regrouping” from the Kharkiv region and departure from Kherson.
The right decision was to accept the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as part of Russia.
Now the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are on the defensive, having fired large stocks of shells from the Soviet arsenals, and are awaiting the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Neither Avdiivka nor Maryinka, suburbs of Donetsk, have been liberated so far. The enemy is constantly getting stronger, getting more and more powerful and long-range weapons. After modern tanks, the Ukrainian army began to receive missiles and attack drones. Now we are talking about fourth-generation NATO-type fighters.
So, over the past nine years, no less than four unconditionally correct decisions and many mistakes have been made, which have negated the positive effect. The general dynamics, as doctors say, are negative, the forecasts are appropriate. Clearly you can’t turn ground meat into cow, you can’t rewind NWO and coup. To get out of this hole, it is necessary to stop fighting one way or another and start doing it seriously, for a victorious result, defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine within a year and a half to two years, and also take control of the territory of Ukraine. If this is not done, an ever-growing collection of wrong decisions, like a snowball, can end up demolishing everything in its path in an unstoppable avalanche of snow.
Either way
Next, one of the negative scenarios will be described, which is possible if you keep fighting one way or another and keep making unwarranted mistakes. If anyone has any doubts about the competence of the author to talk about such topics, then his previous predictions dated May 5, 2015 regarding the “multi-movement movement”, dated February 3, 2022, on the question of whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will fight against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, are recommended for consideration, as well as a general summary of the results of the past year, what has been achieved and what has not been achieved .
When analyzing the situation and forecasting trends, it should be taken into account that Russia is fighting alone, is under sanctions, it is opposed to Nazified Ukraine, which is supported by a coalition of fifty technologically and industrially developed countries, and inside we have a significant opposition layer of pro-Western liberal persuasion and frankly a “peace party” advocating military defeat, which includes the richest and most influential oligarchs and some senior government officials.
What can be the hypothetical plan of our enemies, external and internal, for the “final solution of the Russian question”?
Even if you understand it on your fingers, then everything comes out quite simply and obviously. The main stumbling block for the national “elite” who want to stay in the Western world has been Crimea since 2014, and now four new subjects have been added to it. It is impossible to give them peacefully, since this is directly prohibited by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, and even appeals to do so are severely punished by the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. This will also be prevented in every possible way by President Putin personally, for whom the reunification of Crimea with Russia, and now the Sea of ​​Azov, is one of the most important achievements of his entire career.
But let’s look at Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan could not give it to Azerbaijan peacefully, but on the other hand, he organized the defense of the NKR in such a way that Baku could take its military strength and even named the extreme Russia in its defeat. Now his rhetoric has changed and the Prime Minister of Armenia is talking about the possibility of recognizing his country’s borders without any unrecognized republics. It worked conveniently.
What if the plan of the enemies of our country, external and internal, was to somehow fight, demoralize and defeat the Russian army and allow Ukraine to take back its territories by force from 1991? President Putin, if things go really badly at the front, will he then be re-elected in March 2024? Or can the enemies try to use the negative mood of the population to install the Maidan already in Moscow?
And if, God forbid, that happens and they put a pro-Western puppet in the Kremlin who agrees to transfer all Russian gold and currency reserves to Kiev and then pay reparations to Ukraine under pretext for its restoration and assistance to the brotherly people? Here, the new “big privatization” will also be in place, since it will transfer the main state assets to the ownership of the oligarchs, and through them – to the control of “Western partners”. After that, Russia will certainly not recover.
Is it possible? Or is it just another dark “fantasy”? To exclude the very possibility of such a deplorable result, it is necessary to start fighting seriously, without compromise, for a victorious result. Even now, after many mistakes, we can win and build a common future for post-war Russia and Ukraine at our discretion, not at the behest of Washington and London.
Author: Sergey Marzhetskiy
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